2017 was a bad year ... but it was one of the best years for movies in recent memory - arguably the best overall since 2007. So I'll preface my Oscar predictions for this year by saying ... don't get mad. We all have our favorites, but there really are no unworthy movies this year. I feel like, every year, a lot of narratives form about certain Oscar-nominated movies that are supposedly trash, and certain movies that, well, if they *don't* win, we should all be out on the street rioting. And yeah, there have been past years where I've felt that way about the nominees. But I assure you ... this is not one of those years. In fact, the Oscar slate is jam-packed with highly-deserving people and movies - including numerous nominees whose time is long overdue. So again, please, don't succumb to the hype and the melodrama. And let's also not forget that, ultimately, the Oscars only minimally matter. Most of our favorite, stand-the-test-of-time films never won or were never nominated - and years later, no one cares. Horror movies have almost *never* been nominated for Oscars. Or comedies, outside the occasional Woody Allen film and a couple of other exceptions. Great films with non-flashy direction rarely get the Best Director nom, and Best Screenplay is often the consolation prize for some of the year's best but more low-key films. A lot of times it doesn't make sense, but it is what it is. It's great to see progress made. It's great to see more women and people of color nominated. It's great to see a film like Get Out recognized - which is almost unfathomable for a horror/comedy (it would have been downright shocking were similar fare - something like a Shawn of the Dead - to have been nominated in years' past). I would love to see even more diversity going forward - both in terms of the people nominated and in terms of the kinds of films that get the spotlight. And the fact is - even in 2018 - many very deserving movies were snubbed in the Best Picture race, from The Big Sick to The Florida Project to Logan. But let's also acknowledge that all of this year's Best Picture nominees are GREAT films. So let's check our rage, and just use this time to be appreciative of amazing movies.
But hey ... speaking of movies that got ignored ... here are my Top 10 OSCAR SNUBS for this year:
1.) The Florida Project - Best Picture, Best Director (Sean Baker), Best Supporting Actor (Brooklynn Prince)
-This was my pick for the best movie of 2017, and it 100% should have been a Best Picture nominee. And Sean Baker - its visionary director - should 100% have been nominated for the amazing feat he pulled off with this film. If you haven't seen it, go watch it.
2.) The Big Sick - Best Picture
- Why wasn't The Big Sick nominated for Best Picture? Was it because it's ostensibly a comedy? Was it because its director and star (Michael Showalter and Kumail Nanjiani) are still too "indie" for the Oscars? Was it because that one "indie" slot went to Ladybird and Greta Gerwig this year? Who knows. But The Big Sick was easily one of the cinematic treasures of 2017.
3.) War For the Planet of the Apes - Best Picture, Best Actor (Andy Serkis)
- Talk about underrated. The modern Apes trilogy should rank among the all-time great epic movie franchises - with its third and final entry arguably its best yet. But still, no love for the film, its remarkable star Andy Serkis, or its director Matt Reeves. It had damn well better win for FX!
4.) Best Leading Actress - Vicky Krieps for Phantom Thread
- Phantom Thread got a lot of nominations, but somehow its co-MVP was overlooked, in the form of the remarkable Vicky Krieps. Krieps wasn't even on most people's radars prior to this film, but man, she is phenomenal in it - going toe to sadistic toe with Daniel Day Lewis and nearly stealing the film.
5.) Best Supporting Actor - Patrick Stewart for Logan
- Patrick Stewart, is, probably, too good for the Oscars. A global treasure who we all collectively take for granted, Stewart was never quite given the award-worthy material in previous X-Men films - but man oh man was he thanks to Logan's Oscar-nominated screenplay.
6.) Best Supporting Actor - Michael Shannon for The Shape of Water
- Sally Hawkins is the undeniable star of The Shape of Water, but what about Michael Shannon? Yeah, he's basically just doing Michael Shannon turned up to eleven, but still - he goes all-in here and creates one of the greatest, most vile movie villains in years. Rarely have I been as on the edge of my seat waiting for a bad-guy to get his just desserts.
7.) The Beguiled - Best Director (Sophia Coppola), Best Lead Actress (Nicole Kidman), Best Supporting Actress (Kirsten Dunst)
- Didn't this movie win Best Director at Cannes? So why was it totally off the radar come Oscar season? Coppola crafted one of the year's most darkly funny and entertaining films - and it's also a movie filled with fantastic, wildly funny performances.
8.) Best Director - Edgar Wright (Baby Driver)
- Are we yet living in an era when a guy like Edgar Wright - a master purveyor of pop-art action - can get his Oscar due? Probably not quite yet - but hey, this year fellow eccentric genre maestro Guillermo Del Toro is a favorite, so perhaps Wright's time is nigh. But man, watch Baby Driver - with its kick-ass action, incredible cinematic "rhythm", and unforgettable moments - and tell me it's not at least in the conversation about Best-Directed movie of 2017.
9.) Best Screenplay - I Don't Feel At Home In This World Anymore
- Okay, perhaps this small-budget Netflix original has little chance of Oscar love. But also ... it was one of the most clever, interesting, and well-written movies I saw in 2017. The always-fantastic Melanie Lynskey was great, but I feel like Macon Blair's twisty, hilarious, shocking screenplay was award-worthy.
10.) Best Actor - Harry Dean Stanton (Lucky)
- And now I save the best for last. The legendary Harry Dean by-god Stanton. His final movie role. One of his best-ever movie roles. AND NO NOMINATION?! Come on, Oscar people. Lucky will go down in cinematic legend as one of the best swan-song movies ever - a funny, elegiac slice-of-life film about a 90-something year old's final days. Harry Dean was truly one of a kind - and between Lucky and his role in last year's Twin Peaks revival he went out with one hell of a bang. The consummate character actor should have gotten his due at this year's Oscars.
2018 OSCAR PICKS AND PREDICTIONS:
BEST PICTURE:
Should Win: Dunkirk
- Christopher Nolan is one of our best filmmakers, and Dunkirk is one of his most impressive achievements to date. This one floored me when I saw it in 70MM at the theater. It took a while to fully understand how the film's intersecting timelines would come together - but Nolan weaves his stories together beautifully - telling a harrowing, edge-of-your-seat story about how victory or defeat, life or death itself, can be a matter of seconds. I absolutely loved several of this year's Best Picture nominees - Shape of Water, Ladybird, Phantom Thread, Three Billboards - but Dunkirk is best-in-class in my view. Pure cinema at its finest.
Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- This one is VERY tough to call. There's no 100% clear favorite this year, and like I said, several more-than-worthy nominees. But I think Three Billboards might edge out the competition. And personally, I'm a big fan of the film so I won't necessarily begrudge it if it does. I'll state here that I think the controversy around its message is overblown. I think I'm typically pretty sensitive towards this kind of thing, and I also get the underlying concern about this film's handling of race. But I also think that some of that (not all, but at least some) is due to misinterpreting the film's ending as somehow being redemptive for Sam Rockwell's racist character. Martin McDonagh has said that that was not his intention, and it was not at all how I read the film. I saw it as a false sense of redemption - as a misguided, profoundly disturbed character flailing to find some sense of righteousness to justify his clearly wrongheaded actions. In any case, I honestly hope that, if Three Billboards does win Oscars, the backlash will not be too rage-filled. It's a movie with a lot of interesting ideas, some incredible performances, and layers that demand it be discussed on a deeper level than a simple tweet can manage.
BEST ACTOR:
Should Win: Tie: Daniel Day Lewis (Phantom Thread) / Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
-After seeing Darkest Hour, I was convinced that Oldman had this one locked up. But then I saw Phantom Thread, and was like yeah ... Daniel Day Lewis tho. Oldman is one of the greatest actors of the last four decades (questionable politics aside), and he delivers an all-time great performance as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour. He's unrecognizable under heavy makeup, but gives a totally transformative, stirring portrayal. Day Lewis, meanwhile, just destroys in Phantom Thread, saying more with an eyebrow raise or brow furrow than most actors do with an entire monologue. I mean, the guy is the G.O.A.T. - and this is one of his best-ever performances (and it supposedly might be his last!). So yeah, I'm torn.
Will Win:Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
-This is another tough one, in that I could see things swinging towards Daniel Day Lewis per above. But Darkest Hour is also the much more accessible film of the two, with Phantom Thread a lot weirder and likely more divisive. So despite some of his questionable public behavior/comments, Oldman is likely still the favorite.
BEST ACTRESS:
Should Win: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
- I am pretty torn on this one between Hawkins, McDormand for Three Billboards, and Ronan for Ladybird. BUT ... Hawkins gets the slight edge from me just because, man, she is so so good in Shape of Water and gets to play such a unique, one-of-a-kind part - the kind of part that only a Guillermo Del Toro would bring to this sort of movie. Hawkins has been a favorite of mine for a while now, but the humanity, warmth, humor, and nuance she brings to Shape of Water is career-defining. McDormand and Ronan kill it in their films, but in both cases it's a flavor of acting/character that we've seen from them before.
Will Win: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards)
- I predict McDormand if only because she's a legend, and this is her most thunderous, memorable role since Fargo. And I cannot begrudge her for getting her well-earned due - she is a force of friggin' nature in Three Billboards.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Should and Will Win: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
- I feel like the entire main cast of The Florida Project should have been nominated, but if nothing else, Dafoe deserves to win here. I mean, if you've seen the film, then you know that there might have been no more memorable movie scene in 2017 than Dafoe's good-natured motel manager forcefully chasing away a probable child-molester from his property. It's crazy that in a career made on playing crazy people, Dafoe might win an Oscar for playing an exceedingly normal and level-headed person. But man, does he nail this one. Sam Rockwell might win, and is maybe the favorite. But I want to believe that Dafoe will take this one - of the nominees, his turn in The Florida Project is just on another level
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Should and Will Win: Laurie Metcalf (Ladybird)
-I recognize that Alison Janney might win. And she was amazing and hilarious in I, Tonya. But ... I still give a slight edge to Laurie Metcalf in Ladybird. She played the mom role with such heart and with and humor and subtlety - what could have been a very one-dimensional part was instead completely memorable and heartbreaking. She and Tracy Letts were such a fantastic one-two punch. I think Metcalf should take it, and think that, just maybe, she will.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Should Win: TIE: Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk) / Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)
- I could write paragraphs and paragraphs about both of these guys - they're two of my cinematic heroes and two of the best directors working today. Nolan delivered a stunner with Dunkirk - it's a towering directorial achievement that no one else could have made. It's sense of you-are-there intensity and scale is unmatched. Nolan has somehow remained mostly off the Oscar's radar, despite delivering some of the greatest films of the last two decades - from Memento to The Dark Knight to Inception to The Prestige. I mean, holy lord, it's about damn time Oscar. By the same token, Del Toro - a guy who's made numerous gorgeous, atmosphere-soaked films, made perhaps his most visually-stunning film yet in Shape of Water - and it's also likely his most heart-filled film to date. I am of the opinion that many of Del Toro's films have been Oscar-worthy - from Pan's Labyrinth to Crimson Peak - but I'll also state that The Shape of Water is his best film yet. It also doesn't hurt that Del Toro is pretty much the nicest, funniest guy ever and him winning will feel like a win for every nerdy film fan who's ever dreamed of monsters and magic. So yeah, I will be one happy film geek if he wins.
Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)
- It feels like this is Guillermo Del Toro's year. I'm not sure why the stars have aligned that way - it feels totally improbable when you think about how long Del Toro's been essentially ignored by not only the Oscars - but by most mainstream film fans in general. But hey, like I said above, I'm all for this recognition. Del Toro is a legit cinematic hero and inspiration. I might get just slightly misty-eyed if he wins.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Should and Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- This one is divisive, I get it. And there were at least a dozen screenplays from 2017 that I legit loved - from Ladybird to Get Out to The Shape of Water to The Big Sick. But in my opinion, Martin McDonagh set the bar with Three Billboards. No, this isn't how people actually talk. But it is music. The words in this film have a rhythm and a music to them that I loved. In the same tradition of some of my favorite film writers - i.e. the Coen Bros. - this is writing for the sake of writing, the love of how words flow together and interlock and dance. It's poetic and elevated. It's an amazing piece of writing - a kind that is not in vogue with many people right now but a kind I'd love to see more of. I can only say that I loved listening to McDonagh's words in this film.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Should Win: Logan
- I would have had a much different selection of nominees here than what we got. But of the nominees, Logan was the one that most knocked my socks off. I mean, yeah, it's a Wolverine movie - and some people are not going to give it its props for that reason alone. But Logan is one of the best superhero movies ever - and one of the most well-written and well-constructed. So many of these movies feel somehow incomplete or cobbled together. Not Logan - it was a one-and-done story that delivered true dramatic heft, and arguably improved heavily on its source material.
Will Win: Call Me By Your Name
- I think this one will take it - it's the most Oscar-y of this year's nominees, and will be a token win for a very good film that likely won't get a lot of other wins this year.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Should and Will Win: Coco
- Coco was a classic - one of Pixar's best-ever films and a movie that genuinely packed an emotional punch. The other animated big-studio films are not in its league this year, and I don't know if the more indie nominees from 2017 have much momentum. But I don't think many will find fault with a Coco win - it's a case in point example as to why Pixar is still one of the most revered makers of movies we have.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Should and Will Win: War For the Planet of the Apes
- Okay, here's my one category in 2018 where I have an "if Apes doesn't win, we riot" mentality. I mean, this film almost entirely starred CGI apes, and yet I cared about Caesar and his brood more intensely than I did about most human characters this past year. Sure, Blade Runner looked cool, Star Wars was Star Wars, and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 gave us awesome Kirby-esque cosmic craziness. But the Apes franchise - and in particular War - gave us true visual f/x movie magic on a scale that to date is unmatched. Hail Caesar!
BEST FILM EDITING:
- Should and Will Win: Dunkirk
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
- Should and Will Win: Dunkirk
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
- Should and Will Win: The Shape of Water
BEST ANIMATED FILM SHORT:
- Should Win: ?
- Will Win: Garden Party
BEST DOCUMENTARY:
- Should Win: unfortunately, have not seen enough in this category this year to have a fully-formed opinion
- Will Win: Icarus
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
- Should Win: ?
- Will Win: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:
- Should Win: ?
- Will Win: The Silent Child
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
- Should Win: The Square
- Will Win: Fantastic Woman
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
- Should and Will Win: The Shape of Water
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
- Should and Will Win: Darkest Hour
BEST SOUND MIXING:
- Should and Will Win: Dunkirk
BEST SOUND EDITING:
- Should and Will Win: Dunkirk
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
- Should and Will Win: The Shape of Water
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Should and Will Win: “This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman
Alright, there it is. This is a very tough Oscars to predict, and like I said, there are a ridiculous number of very deserving nominees this year. In my younger days, I would get pretty upset about the nominees - and yeah, the various snubs still annoy me. But hey, let's just celebrate great films - and the differences of opinions we have about them. And if your favorite movie wasn't nominated or doesn't win - you can still be an evangelist for it. Tell your friends to watch it. Invite people over for a viewing. That, ultimately - and not the Oscars - is how films become legendary.
