OSCARS 2019 Thoughts and Predictions:
- I've never really cared about the Oscars as a form of validation for what movies are actually good or great. Most years, the Oscars get it largely wrong - and most years, a lot of the actual best movies are not even recognized with major nominations. And yet ... the Oscars are still a big event for movie fans. Oscar season is a time of year when everyone talks about and cares about movies. And it inspires a lot of interesting conversations - both about the best movies of the last year, and also in terms of predictions for the big show. Ever since the whole La La Land vs. Moonlight controversy, it's felt like the Academy has factionalized between the more old-guard members who lean towards a particular type of movie, and the new blood that wants to promote diversity and less traditional Oscar bait-y fare. Still, the mood of the Academy can be very hard to read. For example, it's sort of shocking, in retrospect, that The Shape of Water won Best Picture last year. The Academy had all but ignored the brilliant yet eccentric works of fanboy-fave director Guillermo Del Toro for years, yet here, suddenly, they were showering praise on Del Toro and one of his films. Was it because, for all its eccentricities, The Shape of Water was, at its core, a traditional star-crossed Hollywood romance (albeit between a woman and a fish-creature?). Was it that the Academy simply can't resist giving love to any movie that pays homage to Hollywood's golden age? Or ... was it that there were new, more open-minded members of the Academy who were more eager to embrace the quirky, the weird, and the less-traditionally-Oscar-friendly sort of movies? Honestly, it's hard to say. But we now find ourselves in a year where you have predictable Oscar-bait fare like A Star Is Born competing directly with things like Marvel's pop-cult sensation Black Panther. I go in skeptical that the best movies will end up winning out - but, man, it will be fascinating to see how things unfold.
Now, as is tradition ... here are my Top 10 OSCAR SNUBS for this year:
1.) Eighth Grade - Best Picture, Best Director (Bo Burnham), Best Lead Actress (Elsie Fisher)
- For the second year in a row, my pick for Best Movie of The Year was snubbed in most major Oscar awards categories. It's insane to me that this film isn't in the running - it was an amazing, hilarious, heartfelt, hyper-relevant look at growing up in 2019 - and it was impeccably directed and written and featured a stellar lead performance from Elsie Fisher.
2.) The Ballad of Buster Scruggs - Best Picture, Best Director (Joel and Ethan Coen)
- It was easy to predict that Buster Scruggs would get snubbed come Oscar time. Coen Bros comedies are *always* ignored by the Oscars, despite time and again becoming classics with cult followings. The Coens rightfully got a Writing nomination this year, but man, Buster Scruggs was so good - top-tier Coens - and should have gotten much more love.
3.) First Reformed - Best Picture, Best Lead Actor (Ethan Hawke)
- First Reformed got a well-deserved Writing nomination for its legendary writer/director Paul Schrader - but it should have been in the Best Picture conversation. It's a jaw-dropper that more people should have been talking about ... though I guess it's one of those movies that is too dark and bleak and nihilistic to get full-blown Oscar love. That said, in a somewhat weak year for the Best Actor category, Ethan Hawke 100% should be in the mix. He kills it in First Reformed.
4.) Best Leading Actor - Jonathan Pryce for The Wife
- Glenn Close is rightfully getting a ton of praise and awards love for her role in The Wife. But after seeing the film, her scene partner and co-lead Jonathan Pryce deserves similar recognition. Watching these two tango is an absolute pleasure, and Pryce - like Close, a legend - is at the absolute top of his game in this one.
5.) Searching - Best Picture, Best Director (Aneesh Chaganty)
- I'm not sure why Searching wasn't really in the awards conversation this year - it should have been! It's one of the best and most clever thrillers in years, and is a total showcase for up-and-coming director Aneesh Chaganty. It's omission is disappointing because this is the sort of movie that should be championed by the Oscars.
6.) First Man - Best Director (Damien Chazelle)
- It's really strange that recent Oscar favorite Chazelle was left in the cold this year, despite First Man being, in many ways, his most ambitious film yet. First Man was a film that was both epic and intensely personal, and arguably Chazelle's best directorial effort yet.
7.) Burning - Best Foreign Language Film
- This one is honestly crazy. I saw some truly amazing foreign films this past year - from Roma to Shoplifters ... but when I finally caught Burning in recent weeks, I was left stunned that it wasn't up for any Oscars, least of all Best Foreign Language Film. The movie is a flat-out masterpiece, and I encourage any and all to give it a watch asap.
8.) Three Identical Strangers - Best Documentary
- There were a lot of popular and buzzworthy documentaries this year, but ... how was arguably the best of the bunch, Three Identical Strangers, not nominated? It's one of the most riveting documentaries I've ever seen, and easily among the best and most must-see movies of 2018.
9.) Best Leading Actress - Nicole Kidman for Destroyer
-Nicole Kidman is at her best in Destroyer - de-glammed and totally badass. The movie is violent and pulpy - so maybe not in Oscar's wheelhouse - but come on, people, Kidman absolutely deserved recognition for Destroyer - a career-best performance.
10.) TIE: Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse - Best Picture
- In a year when Black Panther got a (well-deserved, IMO) Oscar nom for Best Picture, the year's other instant-classic Marvel movie should have received equal recognition. Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse is a likely favorite to win the top Animated prize, but it's an animated movie that is a near-perfect movie, period - equally as compelling to kids and adults and just a remarkable piece of cinematic storytelling. It's a legit work of art.
10.) TIE: Mission: Impossible - Fallout - Christopher McQuarrie for Best Director
- So you're telling me that one of the most jaw-dropppingly directed action movies of all-time doesn't deserve a Best Director nomination? Fine, be that way Oscars. But we all know that McQuarrie knocks it out of the park with the latest and greatest MI movie, and that no conversation about the best directors working today is complete without mention of his name. Get with it, Academy.
10.) TIE: Tilda Swinton for Best Supporting Actress (Suspiria)
- Tilda Swinton delivered an all-timer performance in Suspiria, playing three different roles. Thanks to some incredible makeup and costume work, I honestly had no idea that she was even playing two of the three roles when I first saw the film. Suspiria further cements Swinton as one of the most talented and risk-taking actors working today ... but since the Oscars still don't really do horror, no recognition at all for this film.
2019 OSCAR PICKS AND PREDICTIONS:
BEST PICTURE:
Should Win: Roma, Blackkklansman, or Black Panther
- With my favorite movie of 2018 - Eighth Grade - getting snubbed, I find myself having a really hard time picking between the three movies above as my choice to win. All three were phenomenal films, and are definitely the best of the nominated movies. Roma is a slice-of-life masterpiece, Blackkklansman is an incendiary satire from Spike Lee that's his best in years, and Black Panther is an instantly-iconic superhero film that's likely the pinnacle of the Marvel cinematic universe. If any of these three movies wins, I'd be cool with it.
Will Win: A Star Is Born
- Very tough to call. I think Roma has an outside shot. I think Black Panther does too. Maybe Green Book? But when it comes to the Oscars, there's one solid rule of thumb: never bet against a movie that glamorizes showbiz and stardom. And never bet against the "big" Hollywood epic. Moonlight was a recent exception when it managed to beat out La La Land, but still ... while Star Is Born is not my personal favorite, it's hard to bet against it.
BEST ACTOR:
Should Win: Tie: Christian Bale (Vice), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
- This is a tough one - because both of the above are phenomenal performances in movies that, for me, didn't 100% hit the mark. But Bale's transformation into Dick Cheney is remarkable in Vice, and Rami Malek is similarly fantastic as Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody.
Will Win: Christian Bale (Vice)
- It's a toss-up between the two actors I listed above, but I give Bale the slight edge because he's a known commodity and his transformation was just a bit more impressive, ultimately, than Malek's.
BEST ACTRESS:
Should Win: Glenn Close (The Wife)
- I actually loved Lady Gaga in A Star Is Born, but she's great in that movie in large part because of the musical performance of it all. But ... Close is just awesome in The Wife, and it's a very classical, very theatrical, very commanding tour de force performance that leaves an impression.
Will Win: Glenn Close (The Wife)
- I can see Gaga winning, but I'll give the slight edge to Close because she's an extremely beloved legend who is getting awards love partly as a lifetime achievement award. That said, The Wife isn't just some random role for her - it's one of her career best and it's also, symbolically, the quintessential "#metoo" role for the moment we're in.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Should Win: Adam Driver (Blackkklansman)
- Adam Driver was really great in a somewhat understated way in Blackkklansman - but I think it's among his best roles yet. He brings a quiet intensity to the role but also a lot of humor and an emotional core. The whole cast of this movie kicks ass, but Driver might be the biggest standout.
Will Win: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
- I don't know that Green Book will get a ton of wins this year, but this category seems like the safest bet. Mahershala is on a role recently - killing it left and right in movies and TV shows like True Detective. While I had a couple of issues with Green Book as a whole, Ali is typically excellent in it and it's he and Viggo that elevate the film beyond what it might have been otherwise.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Should and Will Win: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
- First off, what's with the Actor categorizations for The Favourite? Olivia Colman is up for Lead Actress, when she should have been Supporting - and the two leads, Emma Stone and Rachel Weiss, are up for Supporting? Makes no sense. I would actually have picked Weiss if she was up for Supporting Actress, but now I think she'll get lost in the shuffle. In any case, this is a really weak category this year (odd, since it's usually one of the most loaded). So King is sort of the favorite by default. She's great in Beale Street - but she's only in it for a short time and has only a handful of truly standout moments. But she is part of an outstanding overall cast, and she is fantastic during key scenes, and hey, who doesn't love Regina King? She will win, easy.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Should and Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
- In any other year, I'd be picking Spike Lee. It's insane that Spike hasn't yet won an Oscar, and Blackkklansman is 100% deserving of a directorial win. BUT ... Roma is this year's 500 lb gorilla - a directing clinic from Cuaron that is just visually breathtaking, innovative, and quite frankly bar-raising in many ways. Cuaron crafts one of the most poetically shot, picturesque, immersive and engrossing films I've ever seen - cementing his rep as the best in the biz. Sidenote: I also loved the directing in The Favourite and Cold War.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Should and Will Win: First Reformed
- First Reformed was one of those great movie gems where you sit down, watch it, and have NO IDEA where it's all going. And when all is said and done, you're left in a state of shock and the craziness you've just witnessed. Paul Shrader gave us scripts for movies like Taxi Driver - he's earned his street cred. So I think there's a shot that he might get some renewed recognition for his latest. If he does, it will certainly be well-deserved.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Should Win: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
- Nobody does it better than the Coen Brothers. Buster Scruggs is case in point - the brothers' gift for language is unmatched, and they have a supernatural gift for crafting iconic, poetic, hilarious dialogue that will be quoted through the ages and studied and obsessed over for generations. And that's not (to paraphrase) just, like, my opinion, man. It's straight-up fact.
Will Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
- Beale Street was a really great film that I liked a lot, and its screenplay is sprawling and flowery and seemingly captures the essence of the book on which it was based. I think this one will probably net the win here.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Should and Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse
- Here is perhaps the night's biggest no-brainer ... which is saying something in a year where Disney and Pixar put out two extremely strong animated movies in Ralph Breaks the Internet and Incredibles 2. Those would be huge favorites in any other year. But this was the year of Miles Morales, baby. Spiderverse was a masterpiece, and I think the word of mouth was SO strong that, by the time Oscar voting began, the buzz was too much for even the non-superhero-inclined to ignore. Good.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
Should and Will Win: Roma
- Roma is the clear favorite here, since it's also nominated for Best Picture. But man, it's a loaded category this year. Shoplifters is one of, IMO, the absolute best movies of 2018 - highly recommend giving it a watch. And Cold War was also excellent. But Roma is the one to beat - rightfully so.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Should Win: Ready Player One
-To me, the year's biggest movie magic trick was Steven Spielberg putting the cast of Ready Player One smack dab in the middle of The Shining's iconic Overlook Hotel. It was a moment of pure f/x awesomeness, and it's just one of the many eye-popping nerd-out moments in the unfairly-maligned Ready Player One. This was the most IMAX 3D-worthy movie of 2018.
Will Win: Avengers: Infinity War
- That's not to say that Infinity War wasn't an F/X marvel (pun intended). The work on Thanos alone was amazing, and I think that that transference of Josh Brolin's surprisingly humanizing and multilayered performance is what will net Avengers the win.
BEST FILM EDITING:
- Should and Will Win: Blackkklansman
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
- Should and Will Win: Roma
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
- Should Win: Black Panther
- Will Win: The Favourite
BEST ANIMATED FILM SHORT:
- Should and Will Win: Bao
BEST DOCUMENTARY:
- Should and Will Win: Minding the Gap
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
- Should Win: ?
- Will Win: Black Sheep
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:
- Should Win: ?
- Will Win: Detainment
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
- Should and Will Win: Black Panther
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
- Should and Will Win: Vice
BEST SOUND MIXING:
- Should Win: First Man
- Will Win: Roma
BEST SOUND EDITING:
- Should and Will Win: First Man
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
- Should and Will Win: Black Panther
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Should and Will Win: “Shallow" - A Star Is Born
And there you have it. Final thought: there should be an annual "BEST NIC CAGE AWARD" and that award, this year, should go to Mandy. And on that note, watch movies!
