OSCARS 2024 Thoughts and Predictions:
What a great year 2023 was for movies. I say that with it being March of 2024, where, at least as of now, it's hard to see this year matching last year's crazy highs of awesome film releases (the epic, just-released Dune Pt. 2 notwithstanding. So I go into this year's Oscars feeling uncharacteristically good about the whole thing. Up and down the ballot, every category is filled with so much greatness that there are few scenarios where I'd be actively upset about a given winner. It's an embarrassment of riches this year. I mean, every year I talk about my big Oscar hope being that the ceremony helps spread the love for all of the great movies released in a given year, and for the art of cinema in general. And I think this year's ceremony is poised to do that. The nominees run the gamut from big, broad-appealing blockbusters like Oppenheimer and Barbie to smaller films like American Fiction and Past Lives. But even this year's nominated blockbusters are artful, cerebral, bold movies that are anything but standard. The miracle of Oppenheimer is that a heavy, lengthy, morally complex tale of a dark chapter in American history became a mega-blockbuster (thank you Christopher Nolan). And the miracle of Barbie is that a movie based on a toy became one of the most slyly subversive satires we've seen from a big studio ... ever (thank you Greta Gerwig). Honestly, just invoking the names of Nolan and Gerwig gets me excited about the movies. The talented creative forces behind this year's nominees are a star-studded mix of familiar and new names - people that are long-deserving of awards love and others who are likely going to be Oscar fixtures for years to come.
The Oscars are still far from perfect. There's still major genre bias that all but ignores a film like the spectacular Godzilla Minus One except in certain categories like Visual FX. Comedy is still a total no-go come awards season, even in a year that we saw great ones like the hilarious Bottoms. And awards-season campaigns from big studios still carry way too much weight, and too often great indie films like Blackberry get overlooked because a smaller studio like IFC just doesn't have the marketing muscle to compete with the major players.
All that said, I hope this year's Oscars - and future Oscar ceremonies as well - can serve as annual reminders to the masses that there is great cinema out there worth supporting. Great movies that are worth going to the theater to see. Great longform stories that are far more nurturing for one's soul than endless, mindless scrolling through social media.
Ever since 2020, I've felt a renewed appreciation for seeing movies in the theater, on the big screen. And I think a lot of others feel the same. Witness the applause at my local AMC whenever the Nicole Kidman ad plays. It's an in-joke for us AMC A-Listers, sure - but it's also a sign that for those of us who are passionate about movies, the theater really has become a kind of holy temple for us in these crazy, uncertain times. There's nothing better than being in that big, dark room as the lights go down - surrounded by fellow fans ready to see if the movie about to play will deliver the goods.
So let's celebrate that this year. Forget the celebrity, the red carpets, the studio campaigns, etc. Make the Oscars a celebration of great movies - period.
And with that said, as is
tradition ... here are my Top 10 OSCAR SNUBS for this year:
1.) Air for Best Picture
- In any other year, Air would be an Oscar favorite - and it seemed like it would be upon release last summer. But for whatever reason, the movie's awards momentum completely fizzled after a month or two. But Air is a classic American tale, a dramatic, inspiring, feel-good story that was one of my favorites of 2023.
2.) Godzilla Minus One for Best Picture
- Godzilla Minus One had no chance of being nominated for Best Picture. But it shoulda' been a contender. The movie came out of nowhere at the end of last year and quickly gained huge word of mouth buzz. Deservedly, because it was absolutely awesome. One of the best blockbusters in modern history should have been acknowledged for the best that it is.
3.) Leonardo DiCaprio for Best Actor for Killers of the Flower Moon
- Leo is so good in everything, but it's a bit baffling why he wasn't nominated for arguably one of his most interesting roles to date - as the dense, bumbling, easily-manipulated, morally-grey lead in Martin Scorsese's masterful Killers of the Flower Moon.
4.) Glenn Howerton for Best Supporting Actor for Blackberry
- If you know, you know. Blackberry was the low-key, underseen masterpiece of 2023. But it was so good, so hilarious, and so deserving of more Oscar love than what it got (none). Glenn Howerton killed it in this one. Give him his props!
5.) Fantasia Barrino for Best Actress for The Color Purple
- Fantasia was dynamite in The Color Purple, and it was pretty surprising that she didn't get a Best Actress nom. She tore the house down with some of her big musical numbers, bringing my entire theater to applause.
6.) Margot Robbie for Best Actress for Barbie
- I didn't necessarily think Robbie was a lock for Barbie, per se. But what's crazy to me is that Margot Robbie was snubbed LAST YEAR for her tour de force performance in Babylon, and then again this year for the massive cultural sensation that is Barbie. Weird.
7.) Sandra Hüller for Best Supporting Actress for The Zone of Interest
- I know no one wants to double-dip when it comes to multiple noms for one actor across two films. But as good as Sandra Huller was in Anatomy of a Fall (for which she is nominated) ... she may have been even better in the harrowing The Zone of Interest? It's an amazing performance that will stand the test of time.
8.) Rosamund Pike for Best Supporting Actress for Saltburn
- Saltburn got left out of this year's Oscar race, which is strange to me since Emerald Fennell's previous feature Promising Young Woman was a multi-category nominee. But if there was once Saltburn snub that really stung, it was for the always fantastic Rosamund Pike. She crushed it in Saltburn.
9.) Air for Best Original Screenplay
- Going back to Air for a moment, this was a Black List screenplay that was absolutely top-tier. In fact, upon re-watching the movie several months back, I was struck by just how great the dialogue is, how well-drawn the characters are, and how the overall pacing is so spot-on. This was a hell of a screenplay.
10.) How to Blow Up a Pipeline for ... anything
- Another movie that just didn't get a real awards push, but should have. How to Blow Up a Pipeline was easily one of my Top 10 of 2023 - an edge-of-your-seat thriller that felt urgent and of-the-moment. I was floored by this film and I think you just might be too. So give it a watch and wonder why it didn't get any Oscar attention.
Okay, on with the show. Here they are, my ...
2024 OSCAR PICKS AND PREDICTIONS:
BEST PICTURE:
Should and Will Win: Oppenheimer
- Oppenheimer is this year's megaton awards-season movie, and the one that's going to take home a lot of big prizes at this year's Oscars - no question. And I'm sure some are salty about that - no one likes to see one film dominate all others. But I'm okay with it in this case, because Oppenheimer was in my view simply that good. One of the best films that Christopher Nolan has ever directed and one of the most powerful experiences I've ever had in a movie theater. It did blockbuster box office despite being a smart, challenging film. It looked amazing and had a stacked cast that crushed it top to bottom. This was the Best Picture of 2023 and this will win Best Picture of 2023.
BEST ACTOR:
Should Win: Colman Domingo (Rustin)
- I know I'm probably in the minority on this, but my favorite leading actor performance of 2023 was Colman Domingo in Rustin. This was big, theatrical, grade-A acting and another feather in the cap of the ultra-talented Domingo - who had a killer year between this and The Color Purple. He was unforgettable playing real-life civil rights leader Bayard Rustin.
Will Win: Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
- This one is actually a bit of a toss-up, as Cillian Murphy has seemingly been gaining momentum for Oppenheimer. That said, I'll still place my bet on the great Paul Giamatti, a longtime favorite who feels overdue for a big awards win. Giamatti has endeared himself to voters this awards season, and he delivered one of his best-ever performances in the charming The Holdovers.
BEST ACTRESS:
Should Win: Emma Stone (Poor Things)
- This category is absolutely loaded with great performances this year, and I wouldn't really be upset by any of the nominees winning. Sandra Huller? Amazing. Annette Benning? So great. But my personal pick is Emma Stone in Poor Things, which to me was one of the best and most next-level acting performances I've seen in a long time. Taking the character of Bella Baxter through a rapid-fire mental evolution from infant to adult - no easy feat. But Stone pulls it off in astonishing fashion. Between Poor Things and The Curse, she was an absolute MVP of 2023.
Will Win: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
- I also really loved Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon - an outstanding, understated, searing performance. To me ... it was a supporting role though. So I sort of hesitate to give her the nod. But, there's no doubt that a Gladstone win would carry with it a lot of weight and meaning, and really help to underline the tragedies depicted in KoTFM that still reverberate today. I think she'll edge out Stone to win.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Should Win: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
- De Niro is a huge underdog in this year's race for whatever reason ... but to me, his turn in Killers was one of this best acting performances in decades. This was De Niro at the height of his powers, crafting a cunning, manipulative villain for the ages in a performance that was funny, scary, and 100% awards-worthy.
Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
- RDJ is almost unrecognizable in Oppenheimer, but that may in part because we've become so used to seeing him in Tony Stark mode. I think the stark contrast (!) between his iconic MCU role and his performance in Oppenheimer will work in Downey Jr's favor - as will the general love for Oppenheimer overall.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Should Win: Jodie Foster (Nyad)
- Of the nominees (no Sandra Huller for Zone of Interest, alas), Jodie Foster's emotional turn in Nyad was, I think, my favorite. Foster's had an incredible (don't call it a) comeback of late, also killing it in True Detective: Night Country. But it was her supporting turn in Nyad that really reminded me just how great of an actor she can be.
Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
- If there's one acting category you can 100% bet on this year, this is it. Randolph is taking it, without a doubt. And when she does, I will be happy for her. She's excellent in The Holdovers in a truly breakout role, holding her own with an icon like Paul Giamatti and delivering a ton of humor and heart. I hope we see a lot more great parts for her in the years to come.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Should and Will Win: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
- Christopher Nolan is one of the great directors of the modern movie era - a titanic creative force who gave us films like Memento, Inception, and The Dark Knight. And yet, he's never won an Oscar ... until now. Nolan is all but a lock to win here, and it will be well-deserved. Oppenheimer was in theory his "small" movie, but Nolan doesn't really do small. He directs the film with his usual thunderous force and creates a film both epic and intimate, filled with scenes and moments that will forever be etched into my brain.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Should Win: Past Lives
- Past Lives was one of my favorite films of 2023 - and while it's unlikely to win a lot of Oscars this year, I'd love to see it take home the award for Best Original Screenplay. The movie is uniquely structured and packed with emotion. It's a story that deserves to win awards.
Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall
- That said, Anatomy of a Fall is the more "writerly" movie, and I think it will take this one. The film is full of colorful dialogue, courtroom drama, and well-executed twists and turns. So I predict it takes the prize.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Should and Will Win: Oppenheimer.
- This category is an embarrassment of riches this year, and I wouldn't be mad if the wonderfully-written American Fiction, or Barbie, or Poor Things, or Zone of Interest were to win. But Oppenheimer is that movie, and Oppenheimer has an undeniable (the favorite term of screenwriters everywhere) screenplay that is, in and of itself, a pretty remarkable work (seriously, give it a look!).
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Should Win: Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse
- The previous Spider-Man animated film deservedly won Best Animated Movie a few years back - and for a while I thought its sequel was a lock to win as well. And it still might! But, I predict that Academy members will pass on honoring the trilogy's middle chapter - as undeniably amazing as it is - in order to give the gold to one of the all-time greats in the field of animation ...
Will Win: The Boy and the Heron
- Because yeah, if The Boy and the Heron really is the final film of the legendary Hayao Miyazaki, then it does seem a fitting moment to honor one of the pioneers of Japanese animation / anime. For me, this film was a visually-stunning if not somewhat confusing odyssey - but look, Spiderverse had a moment and will have more. For now, I'm cool with this one going to Miyazaki.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:
Should and Will Win: The Zone of Interest
- I've seen a few of this year's international nominees, and I loved 'em all. Perfect Days didn't really get a release until early 2024, but what a phenomenal film that will surely rank highly on my Best of the Year list this year. And Society of the Snow, available on Netflix, is an absolute barn-burner as well. A must-watch! That being said, The Zone of Interest was in my Top 5 of 2023 and it's a harrowing, all-timer of a movie that will be watched and studied and debated for years and years to come. It's a masterpiece. A stunning examination of the banality of evil as relates to the Holocaust, The Zone of Interest should and will win this award. Plus, let's be real: it's pretty much an unwritten rule of the Oscars that any International film also nominated for Best Picture will win the former.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Should and Will Win: Godzilla Minus One
- All hail the great Godzilla Minus One. This one needs to win, and if it doesn't ... I'll be mad. An epic thrill-ride of a film, Godzilla Minus One didn't just have great visuals - but it used them in an ingenious and memorable fashion. Give it to Godzilla.
BEST DOCUMENTARY:
- Should and Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
BEST FILM EDITING:
- Should and Will Win: Oppenheimer
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
- Should and Will Win: Oppenheimer
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Should Win: Poor Things
- It's a toss-up for me (and probably for Academy voters) between Poor Things and Barbie. Personally, I give the edge to Poor Things imaginative sets and unique visual style. But ...
Will Win: Barbie
- Because Barbie was so unexpectedly great as a whole, and because the filmmakers did indeed to a pretty amazing job bringing the pink-hued world of Barbie to surreal life ... I think Barbie takes it.
BEST ANIMATED FILM SHORT:
- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: Pachyderme
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: The ABCs of Book Banning
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:
- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
- I did watch Wes Anderson's short Henry Sugar (currently on Netflix) and thought it was an interesting if perhaps slightly indulgent showcase of the director's quirky style (I much preferred Anderson's longform 2023 film, Asteroid City, which unfortunately was shut out of any Oscar noms). But I think the Anderson and Netflix of it all will propel the Benedict Cumberbatch-starring Sugar to Oscar gold.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
- Should and Will Win: Poor Things
- Another toss-up with Barbie, I think. But Poor Things eye-catching costume design - a huge part of establishing the film's dark, strange, storybook world - should win out.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
- Should and Will Win: Poor Things
- Again, it's hard to say, and you never know because Oppenheimer's overall momentum could end up extending to even a category like this one. But man, as with costume design, Poor Things had such memorable style and makeup - from Emma Stone's various looks to Willem Dafoe's scarred Dr. Frankenstein-esque mad scientist.
BEST SOUND:
Should Win: The Zone of Interest
-
I actually am really rooting for Zone of Interest to win this one, because as amazing as the sound was in Oppenheimer, Zone of Interest is a movie ABOUT sound. The entire film is built around juxtaposition, and so much of that comes from the contrast of ordinary images with horrifying sounds occurring in the background. Some of the most memorable use of specific sounds I've ever seen in a film.
- So maybe, because of above, Zone of Interest does indeed win here? Maybe. But I'd still bet on Oppenheimer - because yes, the movie has some of the most memorable snap, crackles, and pops I've ever heard - burned into my brain for sure. But also, again, Oppenheimer is the 500 lb gorilla of this year's Oscar race.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
- Should Win: TIE:Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon
- Two amazing scores. Ludwig Göransson killed it with Oppenheimer, and the late great Robbie Robertson (of The Band) provided a very memorable score for Killers of the Flower Moon. A toss-up for me.
- Will Win: Oppenheimer
- But again ... Oppenheimer's got the momentum. Hard to bet against it.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
- Should Win: “I’m Just Ken" (Barbie)
- The actual best song from Barbie!
- Will Win: “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie)
- The song that will win an Oscar from Barbie, because it's more serious or something.
And there we go. Like I said, I'm a huge fan of almost every nominated film this year. So all I can really say is please, do yourself a favor an go watch 'em. American Fiction, Past Lives, Perfect Days, The Zone of Interest, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, Rustin, Nyad, Godzilla Minus One - all incredible, all well worth your time.
Celebrate film!
