Danny's OSCAR Picks 2009 ...

- Alright, I've already talked a bit about the Oscars in the last few weeks, and my overall thoughts on the movies of 2008 can be found in my giant-sized, year-end wrap-up post from December. So I'm going to try to keep this relatively bried (at least by Danny Baram standards ...). But I did want to adhere to tradition and present my personal picks for this year's Oscars.

One overall thought about this year's Oscars: since the overall pool of nominees in most categories is not that strong this year, and since many big-name films were snubbed in key areas, this year's Oscars *should* end up being pretty predictable. In most of the big categories, there's one choice that is clearly most deserving of the Oscar, and overall I think there's one movie this year, Slumdog Millionaire, which of the main nominees stands head and shoulders above the competition. Therefore, it's almost shocking to see how many times my personal pick seems to be aligned with my projected winner. We'll see how that pattern holds up tomorrow though ...

So without further ado ...



DANNY'S OSCAR PICKS 2009:



BEST PICTURE:

Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

- I think most people who've seen Slumdog have little doubt that it was the best overall film of 2008. Given that most of the other Best Picture nominees are not particularly strong, and in some cases fairly divisive (ie Benjamin Button), I think it would be a huge upset if anything other than Slumdog won the award. And that's fine with me - Slumdog deserves it, hands down.


DIRECTING:

Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

- Here's another category where you have to give it to Slumdog. On one hand, Danny Boyle did a phenomonal job injecting the movie with kinetic energy and dazzling imagery. Boyle is a director who is long overdue for recognition, and like the Coens' win last year, this award will be not just for Slumdog but for an incredible body of work overall. On the other hand, I don't think any of the other nominees had particularly notable directing. All had very good direction, but come on, I don't think Milk or Frost/Nixon dazzled anyone with their directorial prowess. Now, how Wall-E, Dark Knight, Gran Torino, Burn After Reading, or The Wrestler were not nominated in this category I have no freaking idea.


LEADING ACTOR:

Should Win: Mickey Rourke
Will Win: Mickey Rourke

- Okay, this one COULD go to Sean Penn, and I think that that's because The Wrestler has a lot going against it as an Oscar favorite despite being in my view the year's second-best film behind only Slumdog. For one thing, not many people saw The Wrestler, and for another, it has pretty limited female appeal. Sean Penn was amazing in Milk, no doubt. But his performance was great because of Penn's total transformation. Was it ICONIC in the way that Rourke's was? No. Rourke deserves the win, and I think he will get it by a hair. Perhaps as a belated apology for The Wrestler being so otherwise snubbed.

LEADING ACTRESS:

Should Win: Meryl Streep
Will Win: Meryl Streep

- This one is tough to predict, as none of these performances seem like they were all that mind-blowing. That said, to me Meryl Streep was pretty riveting in DOUBT, and I think that most academy voters will choose to recognize her for that fact. Her role in the movie is melodramatic, full of little quirks, and it's basically an acting clinic. This one should and will go to Streep.


SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Should Win: Heath Ledger
Will Win: Heath Ledger

- An easy category to pick. Last year, it was overflowing with talent - this year, one talent stands head and shoulders above the rest. Ledger wins it, hands down, and it will be a well-earned win. His JOKER in Dark Knight is one of the most iconic villains ever in cinema, and when you really look at why DK worked as well as it did, a huge, huge part of that has to be chalked up to Heath's breakthrough performance.


SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Should Win: Penelope Cruz
Will Win: Penelope Cruz

- Viola Davis, *maybe*, has a chance to upset here, but I just can't see it happening since her screentime is so, so limited in Doubt. On the other hand, Penelope Cruz was awesome in Vicky Cristina Barcelona, and her character really elevated the movie and gave it life. She's my pick to win, and I think many of the voters will agree.


ANIMATED FEATURE:

Should Win: Wall-E
Will Win: Wall-E

- Another easy pick, despite whispers to the contrary. I mean, come on, everyone knows Wall-E should have been nominated for Best Picture. If it doesn't at least win for Animated Feature, then there's something seriously wrong here.


DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

Should Win: no opinion
Will Win: Man On Wire

- I wish American Teen had been nominated, but whatever ... I've heard nothing but great things about Man On Wire so I figure it'd be a huge upset if it somehow does not take home the trophy.


FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

Should Win: Waltz With Bashir
Will Win: Waltz With Bashir

- Argh, it bites that LET THE RIGHT ONE IN is not nominated. But Waltz With Bashir is the one movie in this category that I've seen, and I'm guessing it will be a favorite with my fellow Hollywood Jews on the academy board. Go Israel!


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Should Win: Tossup between Wall-E and In Bruges
Will Win: Wall-E

- Man, maybe IN BRUGES will win, but if so it would definitely be a big upset, as I think I'm one of about 5 people who's actually seen that movie. Check it out though - it rocks. That said, Milk could also win, but Wall-E is my pick as it really was a brilliant screenplay and just a brilliant concept in general. Let's see if the academy agrees ...


ADAPTED SCRENPLAY:

Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

- To me, no contest on this one. A brilliant screenplay, amazingly structured and framed. This should win hands down.


VISUAL F/X:

Should Win: Benjamin Button
Will Win: Benjamin Button

- If there's one area where BB deserves a win, it's here. The aging and de-aging f/x were pretty remarkable, and I predict this will be the area where the movie is thrown a bone.


MAKEUP:

Should Win: Hellboy II
Will Win: Benjamin Button

- Hmm, how many academy members likely saw Hellboy II? I mean, seriously though, Hellboy II has some of the most incredible makeup I've ever seen in a movie, and the use of real costumes and makeup f/x rather than CGI is incredible. It should win, easily. But will it? The prestige pic will probably get the nod in BB, and that's a shame.


ART DIRECTION:

Should Win: The Dark Knight
Will Win: Benjamin Button


CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire


COSTUME DESIGN:

Should Win: Benjamin Button
Will Win: Benjamin Button


DOCUMENTARY SHORT:

Should Win: no clue
Will Win: ah, I'l go with "The Final Inch" ... hey, it sounds dramatic!


FILM EDITING:

Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire


ORIGINAL SCORE:

Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire


ORIGINAL SONG:

Should Win: "Jai Ho" from Slumdog
Will Win: "Jai Ho" from Slumdog


SHORT FILM, ANIMATED:

Should Win: Presto
Will Win: Presto


SHORT FILM, LIVE ACTION:

Should Win: no clue ...
Will Win: again, no idea, but I'll guess "New Boy", why not?


SOUND EDITING:

Should Win: Wall-E
Will Win: Wall-E


SOUND MIXING:

Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire



- And that's it for now ... let's see how I fare ...


PS -- shoutouts to: Gran Torino, American Teen, Let the Right One In, Son of Rambow, Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Pineapple Express, Role Models, Speed Racer, and Burn After Reading. Insanity that none of these fine films received nominations!