OSCARS 2020 Thoughts and Predictions:
- Alright, it's Oscar time! As I say every year, I don't really look at the Oscars as definitive or vital in terms of picking the actual best movies of a given year. More often than not, Oscar gets things wrong (or at best half-wrong), and the entire voting system - in which Academy members who've likely only seen a fraction of the nominees choose the winners - really needs an overhaul. That said, 2019 was such a great year for movies, and I personally loved so many of this year's nominees (naming several not just in my Best of the Year, but in my Best of the Decade) ... I'm excited to see some of my favorite writers, directors, and actors received much-deserved recognition. But even more so, I'm excited to see so many casual moviegoers get exposure to exceptional movies like Parasite and Jojo Rabbit and others they may not be inclined to check out otherwise.
Now, as is tradition ... here are my Top 10 OSCAR SNUBS for this year:
1.) Uncut Gems (Best Picture, Adam Sandler for Best Actor, Safdie Brothers for Best Director)
- Uncut Gems is such a fantastic and highly-relevant film. It's innovative, intense, and unforgettable. Adam Sandler's performance in it is an all-timer, and will be talked about, raved about, and meme'd about for years to come. The movie's total exclusion from this year's Oscars is, frankly, a joke.
2.) Best Leading Actress - Lupita N'yongo for US
-Lupita's performance in US was, IMO, one of the year's best. She played two characters and created an instantly-iconic horror movie persona. It was jaw-dropping. But horror movies pretty much never get a fair shake at the Oscars, so yeah, Lupita is left out. Crazy.
3.) Best Director - Greta Gerwig for Little Women
- As many have pointed out, Little Women got nominated for a lot, but ... the movie obviously didn't direct itself. Gerwig is an amazing writer, but also an incredibly skilled director. She deserves to be talked about in the same vein as some of the best in the business today.
4.) The Lighthouse - Best Picture and Best Supporting Actor for Willem Dafoe
- The Lighthouse is a strange film, but also an incredibly good one. And Willem Dafoe gives an iconic performance - doing descent-into-madness as good as anyone ever has. Unfortunately, much like director Robert Egger's previous horror masterpiece, The Witch, this one also got snubbed.
5.) Midsommar - Best Picture and Best Leading Actress for Florence Pugh
- Another major horror masterpiece snubbed. Midsommar was a tour de force - anchored by a mesmerizing lead performance from Florence Pugh. But yeah, can't have horror at the Oscars!
6.) The Farewell - Best Picture and Best Leading Actress for Awkwafina and Best Director for Lulu Wang
- A fantastic film featuring a breakout lead role for Awkwafina, The Farewell mixes humor, heart, and pathos to become something truly special.The fact that it was basically ignored by The Oscars is a bit ridiculous.
7.) Apollo 11 - Best Documentary
- Apollo 11 was best seen in a theater in IMAX, so maybe that hurt it with voters who just watch everything via screeners. But, come on, Oscars - this was a seminal film, one of the most jaw-dropping movies I saw in 2019. A mind-boggling exclusion.
8.) Best Leading Actress - Jesse Buckley for Wild Rose
- I'm not sure why Wild Rose went totally under Oscar's radar this year, but man, what a great indie movie this was - and what an all-time awesome performance from Jesse Buckley in the lead role. Go watch this one if you haven't seen it!
9.) Best Lead Actor - Christian Bale for Ford vs. Ferrari
- Bale goes all out in Ford vs. Ferrari - one of his best performance ever and so good that it elevates the film beyond what it might have been otherwise. And yet - no Oscar love? Come on.
10.) Best Supporting Actress - Thomasin McKenzie for Jojo Rabbit
- Thomasin McKenzie has quickly become one of the most must-watch young actresses out there. She was phenomenal a few years ago in Leave No Trace, and she's just as great in Jojo Rabbit - in many ways the heart and soul of the film. Strange to me that Scarlett and would get a nom, but not her.
2020 OSCAR PICKS AND PREDICTIONS:
BEST PICTURE:
Should Win: Jojo Rabbit, Parasite, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, or The Irishman
- Jojo Rabbit was my personal favorite of 2019, but honestly, all four of the above are, IMO, masterpieces. I put 1917 maybe one notch below (though I was also a huge fan of that one), but the above four films are all very much Best Picture worthy.
Will Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- It's either that, or 1917. Could go either way. But I'm going slightly against the grain and saying that, ultimately, I bet on the movie about Hollywood. There's just too much nostalgia for that era among older Academy voters to bet against it. 1917 is the safe pick - the most "traditional" Best Picture movie in many ways - and it won the Golden Globe. So it's a favorite, no question. Parasite has maybe an outside chance, and I'd love to see it win, but unfortunately I think there will still be some bias about a non-English-language movie taking home the big prize. But I just have a feeling that Hollywood may eek it out.
BEST ACTOR:
Should and Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
-Okay, I am well documented as having very mixed feelings about Joker. But ... Phoenix was undeniably incredible in it. He has an ability to go to this other level that few other actors do. I think that's why he's the runaway favorite to win, and why he probably should - regardless of what you think about Joker. Sandler should have been in this race though.
BEST ACTRESS:
Should and Will Win: Renee Zelwegger (Judy)
- This category is a bit weak this year, and is missing a lot of key performances like Awkwafina from The Farewell. But, Zelwegger, of the nominees, should and will take it. She turns in a big, showy, memorable performance as Judy Garland that you can't help but appreciate. It's exactly the kind of thing that Oscar voters love - but in this case, I've got to side with 'em - it's one heck of a turn from a deserving and beloved actress.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Should and Will Win: Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
-And here is another no-brainer of this year's Oscars. Pitt has long been underappreciated as an actor, and has steadily built his resume to include dozens of memorable and iconic roles - often of them surprisingly quirky, given his leading man image in pop-culture. But man, Pitt just kills it in Tarantino's latest - he owns the screen for every second he's on it.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Should Win: Florence Pugh (Little Women)
- 2019 was the year of Florence Plugh. She killed it in Fighting With My Family, Midsommar, and also in Little Women. In the latter, she was funny, engaging, and memorable - and in many ways the highlight of what was an all-around great film. That said ...
Will Win: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
- I had mixed feelings about Marriage Story, but I LOVED Dern in the film. She made the most of every line of dialogue, creating a character that was hilarious and that stole the movie from the leads in many a scene. I give the slight edge to Pugh - especially given Dern's relative lack of screen time in Marriage Story ... but Dern is a Hollywood fave and will, I think, win this one.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Should and Will Win:Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
- This is a tougher one to call. Sam Mendes has got to be a favorite for 1917. But I wonder if the director's eclectic resume will hurt him, and/or if a lot of the credit for 1917's amazing visuals will go to its legendary cinematographer, Roger Deakins. Meanwhile, Bong has quickly become a beloved personality - funny, outspoken, and personable. And he's one hell of a director to boot. Hollywood sort of missed the boat in ever honoring other great Korean directors like Chan Wook Park - but I think they might go with Bong here. Parasite is truly a director's movie, and it's clearly Bong's vision from start to finish.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Should and Will Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- A lot of good stuff in this category, including the should-have-been-nominated-for-more Knives Out. But I think you've got to go with Tarantino for this one, as he is known for his writing and the Academy will, I think, reward him for Hollywood's slightly more subtle and subdued tone vs. some of his more ostentatious recent work. Parasite and Marriage Story are also in the mix, but we'll see. I personally put Hollywood slightly ahead of Parasite.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Should Win: The Irishman
- This was actually my top script of 2019 - the dialogue was so rich and so entertaining and there were so many fantastic moments big and small. I mean, man, this screenplay should IMO be studied.
Will Win: Little Women
- And this is a tough one. I think the Academy respects Greta Gerwig more as a writer than as a director, and in some ways I see why. Her movies are more script-driven, and she's an absolutely brilliant writer. So I think this is where Little Women gets its due. I loved the script - I put it a notch below The Irishman, but I'll be cool if it wins.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Should Win: How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
- The How to Train Your Dragon franchise is absolutely beloved by fans young and old, but for whatever reason hasn't gotten much awards love. In theory, that should change at this year's Oscars. I mean, why not honor this Dreamworks series for a fun, heartfelt, and visually-incredible capper to a great trilogy of films?
Will Win: Missing Link
- This one's a little hard to predict, but my suspicion is that Oscar voters tend not to watch a lot of animated films and thus go with the known quantities. That would put Toy Story 4 as a favorite, but that movie's general underwhelming-ness will probably hurt it. Missing Link's Golden Glove win may have put it on more people's radars, so I'm going with it as a somewhat dark horse. Laika has often been ignored by the Academy in the past, so it's hard to say. But I'm going with it.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
Should and Will Win: Parasite
- Similar to Roma last year, Parasite is the clear favorite here given its nominations in other major categories. And, I mean, Parasite is phenomenal so I can't dispute its front-runner status.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Should Win: Avengers: Endgame
- Let's give Marvel props for the incredible f/x work, over two movies, done to bring the character of Thanos to life. I mean, it's all-time great, bar-raising mo-cap work.
Will Win: 1917
- But yeah ... what a strange category this year. Most of the big f/x blockbusters nominated were also critical duds (i.e. The Lion King). And Marvel never seems to win, so I'll be pleasantly surprised if Endgame eeks it out but I just have a hard time betting on it. More likely, 1917 sweeps all the technical categories.By the way though, Alita: Battle Angel should have been in the running.
BEST FILM EDITING:
- Should and Will Win: Parasite
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
- Should and Will Win:1917
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
- Should and Will Win: Parasite
BEST ANIMATED FILM SHORT:
- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: Memorable
BEST DOCUMENTARY:
- Should Win: ??? (where was Apollo 11?!)
- Will Win: American Factory
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
- Should Win: ???
- Will Win:St. Louis Superman
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:
- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: A Sister
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
- Should and Will Win: Little Women
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
- Should and Will Win:Judy
BEST SOUND MIXING:
- Should and Will Win: 1917
BEST SOUND EDITING:
- Should and Will Win: 1917
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
- Should and Will Win:1917
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
Should and Will Win: “Stand Up" - Harriet
And that's it for now. Happy Oscar watching and Happy Movie Watching!
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