OSCARS 2021 - Pre-Show Thoughts & Predictions

OSCARS 2021 Thoughts and Predictions:

- To paraphrase Hollywood's highest-paid actor, The Rock: FINALLY ... it's time for the Oscars. This year's awards season comes at the tail end of what's been an insane year. Obviously, in general, everything since last March has just been crazy. But for movies, man, it's been a wild ride. As the pandemic began to spread early last year, theaters quickly shut down and countless movie release dates were delayed. Many movies skipped theaters and became available for digital rental or streaming. And the Oscars were pushed back from their usual February timing to late April - with films that only experienced a real release in January, February, or even March still eligible for this year's awards. For someone like me who tends to be a bit obsessive about watching and ranking each year's best movies, having to wait until 2021 to watch some of 2020's most-buzzed-about movies - like Nomadland, Minari, The Father, and Judas and the Black Messiah - was a bit frustrating. At the same time, thinking back to the before-times when I saw early 2020 movies like Emma or The Invisible Man - that I actually saw in theaters! - feels like a lifetime ago. 

But here's the thing: when you factor in all the Oscar-eligible movies from 2020 and early 2021 ... this year's Oscars are actually *loaded* with great films. I don't know that the Best Picture category, for example, has been this stacked with truly A-level films in quite some time. Are there some slightly "less-than" movies that snuck in here and there across the various categories? Sure. But there are also so many great films in the mix.

 

I would 100% encourage everyone to GO WATCH THESE MOVIES. With a few clicks into Hulu, Amazon, or Netflix - or for a few dollars via Apple or on-demand - you can see so many fantastic films from the last 15 months, safely at home. While I personally can't wait to, eventually, go back to theaters - there's also something to be said for the ease of access we all have right now to so many great current releases.

Now, we all know that the Oscars are not always a perfect representation of the past year's actual best films. The Oscars still tend to overlook a lot of movies that really shoulda' been contenters. And so, as is tradition ... here are my Top 10 OSCAR SNUBS for this year:

1.) Da 5 Bloods and Delroy Lindo

- Da 5 Bloods was my pick for Best Movie of 2020 - and the fact that it got zero major nominations is literally insane. I mean, this is top-tier Spike Lee - arguably one of his best-ever films. And DELROY LINDO. Dude. This was an all-timer acting performance. How was he not nominated?!

2.) The Assistant and Julia Garner

 - This indie film was one of the best of 2020. A stark, haunting portrayal of an assistant working at a movie production company with a Harvey Weinstein-like boss, this one should have been in this year's awards conversations.

 3.) Palm Springs

- Palm Springs was the perfect pandemic movie - and yet, no major Oscar noms? For shame. Yet another example of really good comedies being left out of the awards conversation just because they're funny.

4.) Never Rarely Sometimes Always

- This indie breakout from 2020 was another one that was on my Top 10 of the year but that sadly got no awards love from the Oscars. With so few big blockbusters in 2020, I would have hoped that the Oscars could have shown more love to smaller gems like this.

5.) The White Tiger

- While this one did get a screenplay nom, I can't help but think that it should have more so been in the conversation for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Leading Actor. A stylish crime thriller with a dark sense of humor - I really liked this one.
 
6.) Jodie Foster in The Mauritanean

- While I wouldn't quite put The Mauritanean up there as a Best Picture contender, it's still a very good film and it still features a fantastic performance from Jodie Foster that netted her a Golden Globe. So ... why was this film totally ignored by the Oscars? 

 7.) Let Them All Talk and Candace Bergen 

- Let Them All Talk really should have been in this year's Oscar mix. It was one of the best of 2020, Steven Soderbergh directed the hell out of it, and the entire cast was fantastic. Most notably, Candace Bergen was shockingly incredible in one of her best-ever roles. And yet, no Oscar love? What gives?

8.) Evan Rachel Wood in Kajillionaire

-  Yet another quirky indie that got totally snubbed by the Oscars. If anything, the amazing lead performance from the great Evan Rachel Wood should have been acknowledged. It was a world's away from anything we've seen her do before, but she nailed it. 

9.) One Night In Miami for Best Picture

- One Night In Miami did ultimately get a lot of awards love at the Oscars. But ... where was its Best Picture nom? I mean, this was a top-tier, A-level film - easily as good as or better than most of this year's actual Best Picture nominees. A major misstep, to be sure.

10.) I Care a Lot and Rosamund Pike

-  Another Golden Globe winner who came up empty in terms of Oscar noms, it's a bit mystifying how Pike's tour de force performance in I Care a Lot was snubbed. 

 

Bonus Snub: Spontaneous

 

- I almost didn't mention this one because it was always clear that Spontaneous would not be an Oscar movie. It was too quirky, too young-skewing, too genre-bending, too ... cool? ... for the Oscars to ever fully take it seriously. But why? Why is it such a given that the Oscars overlook cool movies like this? Spontaneous had one of the best scripts of 2020, and was one of the year's most memorable and interesting films, bar-none. 


2021 OSCAR PICKS AND PREDICTIONS:

 

BEST PICTURE:

Should and Will Win: Nomadland

- There are a lot of more-than-worthy movies nominated this year - from Sound of Metal to Minari to The Father to Promising Young Woman - but to me, Nomadland is just that one notch above the pack. It's a truly mind-blowing, chill-inducing film that speaks to the state of this country and the times we live in - and Frances McDormand is mind-blowingly good in it too. Give the win to Chloe Zhao and Nomadland. And while I think Minari has a chance to upset, I still think that at the end of the day, the sheer brilliance of Nomadland will win out with Oscar voters. 

 

BEST ACTOR:

Should Win: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

- Riz Ahmed seemingly came out of nowhere and completely blew me away with his performance in Sound of Metal. The movie left me totally shaken, and a big part of that was due to Ahmed. That said, there are some really great performances in this category, and after seeing The Father, Anthony Hopkins is up there as well. 

Will Win: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

- This is a tough one. Boseman was fantastic in Ma Rainey's, and it makes sense to want to honor his life, career, and tragic passing in 2020. So I think he will end up with a victory here. Boseman's performance was one of the best of last year - but just on an apples to apples basis, I'd probably give the edge to Ahmed or Hopkins.

BEST ACTRESS:

Should and Will Win: Frances McDormand (Nomadland)

- This is a difficult one to predict, as I could see upsets from Carey Mulligan or Viola Davis - or even from the Golden Globe winning Andra Day. But ultimately, I think the sheer force of nature that was McDormand in Nomadland wins out. It's an all-timer performance in an all-timer movie.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Should and Will Win: Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

- I'd love to see Paul Raci win this one. He brought so much heart, soul, authenticity, and lived-in wisdom to Sound of Metal. That said, he is in many ways an underdog to win, given the much higher-profile names he's competing against. Still, I am going to go out on a bit of a limb and predict he pulls off the upset here. I could see the two actors from Judas (Daniel Kaluuya and Lakeith Stanfield) perhaps canceling each other out - opening the door for a Raci surprise. We shall see ...

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Should and Will Win: Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)

- This is another tough category to predict, but I think Yuh-Jung Youn of Minari stands a good chance for gold. She is also my pick for personal fave in this category, as Minari has a great ensemble cast, but she in many ways is the show-stealer. For that reason, I think her status of MVP of one of the year's best films will make her a voter favorite.

 

BEST DIRECTOR:

Should and Will Win: Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)

- I think you can take this one to the bank, and deservedly so. Nomadland is a phenomenally-directed film, and deserves the win - and Zhao has already taken home multiple awards for this one to boot. Personally, I would be happy to see her win. I am such a fan of what she did with Nomadland - just an incredible piece of cinematic art.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Should Win: Sound of Metal

- I like a lot of the scripts in this category, but I keep coming back to Sound of Metal as the film from 2020 that most floored me (along with the sadly not-nominated Da 5 Bloods). 

 

Will Win: Promising Young Woman

 

- I give PYW a lot of credit for just, well, going for broke. It's unique and pulls-no-punches. It's also very much a script-driven movie. So I think it will take this one. If it does, I'm very cool with it. This is one hell of a cool film.

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Should Win: One Night In Miami

- A lot of good scripts in this category, but man, One Night in Miami is just filled with amazing dialogue that absolutely sings. It's theatrical and its dense, but man, is it good. Still, Nomadland is so good overall ... I also can't help but root for that film too. And White Tiger. And The Father ...

Will Win: Nomadland

- I think the safest bet is that Nomadland sweeps the categories in which its nominated, including this one. But ... who knows.

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

Should Win: Onward

- As I've said previously, Onward for me was the best Pixar movie of 2020. I give it the edge over Soul because it worked so well thematically, and delivered a memorable and heartfelt ending. Soul came out of the gate hot, but for me, slightly fizzled by the end.

Will Win: Soul

- With that said, Soul is definitely perceived as the more prestige of the two Pixar movies - so it winning here is probably one of this year's safest bets.

 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM:

Should and Will Win: Another Round

- Given that it's also nominated for Best Director, you have to figure that Another Round is a shoe-in. I recently watched this one, and it is a really interesting film. I still need to watch some of the other nominees, but I give Another Round a hearty endorsement.

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

Should Win: Mulan

- I thought that, visually, Mulan was oftentimes flat-out awesome - with epic battle scenes and a real sense of style and flair and epicness. In a year with few real blockbusters, Mulan was one of the movies that most made me wish I had been able to see it on the big screen.

Will Win: Tenet

- I think Tenet gets the nod here just because of its name-brand recognition and prestige. The truth is that, IMO, this one lacked the same sort of memorably jaw-dropping visuals as past Nolan epics like Inception or Interstellar.


BEST FILM EDITING:

- Should Win: The Father or Sound of Metal

- Will Win: The Father

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

- Should and Will Win: Nomadland

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

- Should and Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

BEST ANIMATED FILM SHORT:

- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: Burrow

BEST DOCUMENTARY:

- Should and Will Win: Crip Camp

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:

- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: A Concerto is a Conversation

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:

- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: Two Distant Strangers

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

- Should Win: Emma

- Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:

- Should Win: Emma 

- Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

BEST SOUND:

- Should and Will Win: Sound of Metal

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

- Should Win: News of the World 

- Will Win: Soul

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

- Should Win: Eurovision

- Will Win: Judas and the Black Messiah