OSCARS 2025 Thoughts and Predictions:
It's weird ... I've long been a big fan of the run-up to the Oscars, but less so a fan of the show itself.* I love that annual window in November and December when great movie after great movie releases in theaters, when the discourse turns from dissecting the ups and downs of the big summer blockbusters to celebrating incredible filmmakers and their works. To me, all of the subsequent Oscar prediction back-and-forth is an extension of that celebration. Sure, there's a fun element of game-ification to it all. But it's also just another excuse to talk about the year's best movies.
*This year, I make and exception in that I AM indeed very excited for the show itself. Conan O'Brien is hosting, and I can't wait!
And sometimes ... there is, of course, a pretty wide gap between my picks for the year's best movies and what actually gets nominated (and then, in turn, what ends up as a front-runner) come awards season. And ironically, a big source of that discrepancy in recent years have been the films of Sean Baker.
Sean Baker is one of the most talented and remarkable filmmakers working today, and he's made some of my favorite films of the last few decades, with projects like The Florida Project and Red Rocket. That said, he's been largely ignored by the Oscars. Perhaps his movies are too "small," too artsy, too indie, not grand enough for an awards show that likes to celebrate the big, the spectacular, the epic. But while Baker's movies can be small in scale, but are always grand in thematic ambition. Case in point: Anora.
Anora was my favorite film of 2024, and it's arguably Baker's best movie to date. Surprisingly, given this recent history, it also finds itself in the odd position of being an Oscar front-runner. Could the Oscars have finally caught up to Baker? Or is it a larger cultural thing, where we are now in a world where innovative indie studios like A24 and Neon (that distributed Anora) are now the darlings both of core movie fans and, by extension, a body of younger and more with-it awards voters? Maybe Baker's time has finally come.
See also: The Substance. The Substance, from uber-indie distributor Mubie, is the exact kind of movie that creates buzz in today's marketplace: a gonzo horror movie with a powerful message, a movie that has to be seen (preferably with a packed audience) to be believed, a film designed to be a conversation-starter. In past years, there was no way in hell that a movie like The Substance would have been an awards contender. But its organic buzz, combined with its comeback-story narrative for star Demi Moore, has made it a surprise multi-Oscar award nominee. And its director, Coralie Fargeat (who first got on my radar for the awesomely grindhouse-y film Revenge), is this year's only female nominee for Best Director. So yeah, if The Substance wins, I will cheer.
The times, they are a-changin' (to quote the subject of Best Picture nominee A Complete Unknown). Smaller indies like Moonlight and crazier, more eclectic big-swings like Parasite and Everything Everywhere All At Once paved the way. Who knows what's possible now.
But here's what I do know ... as much as we film nerds collectively love to rag on the Oscars, this year's awards - serving as a celebration of bold art as diverse as Anora and The Substance and Nickel Boys - will serve as a direct and welcome affront to this Dumb New World we're living in post the November 2024 election. And that is 100% worth cheering.
And with that said, as is
tradition ... here are my Top 10 OSCAR SNUBS for this year:
1.) Challengers for Best Original Score
- Mind-boggling! Challengers had an instantly-iconic techno score from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross. Somehow, the Golden Globes got this very right while the Oscars got this very wrong. What happened?!
2.) Sing Sing for Best Picture
- The great Colman Domingo deservedly got a nom for this one, but Sing Sing is a Top 10 movie of 2024 and should have made the cut for Best Picture, easily.
3.) Danielle Deadwyler for Best Lead Actress for The Piano Lesson
- I was disappointed overall that the stellar The Piano Lesson was completely snubbed by this year's Oscars. But for Danielle Deadwyler, this is becoming a pattern. She's one of the best actors around, and she keeps getting snubbed.
4.) A Real Pain for Best Picture
- A Best Supporting Actor and Best Screenplay nomination - but no Best Picture? A Real Pain was one of 2024's best, and was one that should have been in the Best Picture mix.
5.) Thelma for ... anything
- Movie fans agree: Thelma ruled. So where's the awards love? I mean, we're now getting crazy body horror movies like The Substance as nominees, but comedies still get no love? Funny movies are valid!
6.) Glen Powell for Best Actor for Hit Man
- Glen Powell has delivered numerous big, movie star performances over the last few years. But his best acting ever can be seen in 2024's Hit Man, in which he gives us a legit awards-worthy performance. And yet - no Oscar nom. Come on now.
7.) Lupita Nyong’o for Best Lead Actress for A Quiet Place: Day One
8.) Luca Guadagnino for Best Director for Challengers
9.) Tilda Swinton for Best Supporting Actress for Problemista
10.) Willa Fitzgerald for Best Lead Actress for Strange Darling
- I'm thrilled with the multiple noms for The Substance this year. But 2024 was an incredible year for horror overall. And one of the best horror/thrillers of the year was the amazing Strange Darling. And one of the things that made Strange Darling so great was the absolute stunner of a breakout performance from Willa Fitzgerald. Cast her in everything. And give her some awards!
BEST PICTURE:
Should and Will Win: Anora
- Honestly, this is one of the toughest years in a while to predict Best Picture. On paper, it feels like Anora should be the front-runner. But is it? As I discuss above, Sean Baker's films historically tend not to be Oscar darlings - and Anora while is incredible, it's also not exactly a film for everyone. Conclave is a "safer" choice. As is A Complete Unknown, which seems to be gaining momentum. And Wicked is the feel-good juggernaut. And The Brutalist the big-swing epic. I think the vote will be heavily divided. But I also think that there are enough people like me - who passionately feel that Anora is the best movie of 2024 - to help it edge out the competition. We shall see.
BEST ACTOR:
Should Win: Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
- There are a ton of heavy-hitters in this category. But Colman Domingo was, again, the best of the bunch. His performance in Sing Sing is simply an all-timer. The man is the best in the biz right now, and in a fair world he would get his props.
Will Win: Timothee Chalomet (A Complete Unknown)
- But, it's probably going to be either Adrian Brody for The Brutalist or Club Chalomet's favorite son. And don't get me wrong, both were fantastic in their respective films. I give the slight edge to Chalomet here as he really carried A Complete Unknown, whereas Brody was helped by huge contributions from the also-nominated Guy Pierce and Felicity Jones. And it's finally Chalomet's time to be acknowledged as one of the best young actors going (see also: Dune II). Also, I am happy that Sebastian Stan was nominated for his searing performance as Donald Trump in The Apprentice ... but I just don't think there is appetite (understandably) to give that award out now at this moment (and same probably goes for Jeremy Strong in the Supporting Actor category).
BEST ACTRESS:
Should Win: Mikey Madison (Anora)
- Another loaded category. But for me, I would give it to Mikey Madison. Yes, she's young and this is her first big starring role. But who cares? She crushes it in Anora, delivering an instant-classic performance. And when you realize how completely different this role is versus her real life personality? Even more impressive. This and Colman Domingo in Sing Sing were the two best overall performances of 2024.
Will Win: Demi Moore (The Substance)
- But, this is the one with an incredible narrative. And I can't be too mad, because Demi Moore kills it in The Substance. That mirror scene alone, that secured her the Oscar. It's the best role of Moore's career. And for that, she will be rewarded (and will give a great speech). I'll also note though: I wouldn't be shocked if I'm Still Here's Fernanda Torres plays spoiler.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Should Win: Yura Borisov (Anora)
-Watching Anora, for much of its running time, you wouldn't think that Yura Borisov would be an Oscar contender ... until those final 15 minutes or so when the depth of his character comes into full view, and the entire performance is, beautifully, recontextualized. It's astounding. Borisov in Anora blew me away. I would give him this Oscar.
Will Win: Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
- I'm going to predict a bit of a surprise here. Because I know Kieran Culkin has won a bunch of awards and I know he is, in many ways, the favorite (and I thought he was fantastic in A Real Pain). However ... Edward Norton is kind of magical and amazing in A Complete Unknown, and it's a performance that sticks with you. Norton is approaching legendary status and has sort of reinvented himself in terms of the types of roles he excels at. I think he will end up taking this one. Note: I also love Guy Pierce in The Brutalist, but his performance there is so over-the-top and insane that I can't see him winning. But I would be amused if he did.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Should Win: Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
- Felicity Jones enters the second half of The Brutalist like a total firecracker, and gives new life to the movie with a memorable and entertaining performance. Jones is always great in everything, and she particularly shines in this one. I'd give her the nod.
Will Win: Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)
- And here's where it gets tricky, and here's where we get into the Emilia Perez of it all. Personally, I really loved the movie when I first saw it. I then read up on some of the controversies and it made my esteem for the movie drop just a bit. But then, all the Carla Sofia Gascone stuff came out and, yikes. That unfortunately tanked Gascone's awards chances and the film's Best Picture chances. But I think there is still love out there for the movie as a whole, and particularly for Zoe Saldana's performance in it. And it helps that the other contenders in this category, other than maybe Jones, aren't heavyweights per se (and how many Oscar voters watched all 3.5 hours of The Brutalist to see the brunt of Jones' performance?). So Saldana still gets it. And I won't be upset, because I still maintain that she is positively dynamite in Emilia Perez.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Should and Will Win: Sean Baker (Anora)
- Once again, I could see Anora winning a lot and also winning nothing. It's hard to say and it's going to be tight. I feel like Baker's main competition here is probably Brady Corbett for The Brutalist. But Baker has the track record that Corbett does not, and I could see a scenario where voters are like "yeah, we probably should have been nominating this dude for his last several films, so ...". But again, this could go in some different directions. James Mangold could be a spoiler for A Complete Unknown. I don't see Coralie Fargeat winning, but it would sort of rule if she did. We'll see. But ultimately I hope it's finally Baker's year, and I think it just might be.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Should and Will Win: Anora
- It probably comes down to Anora vs. A Real Pain here. And both are SO well written and are deserving. But man, Sean Baker is quite simply a genius who, more than almost anyone, can make personal stories take on a metaphorical significance that feels urgent and timely. See also: The Florida Project. See also: Red Rocket. I see Anora winning this one.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Should Win: Sing Sing
- Sing Sing is a powerful film that's got an undeniable script. I really like a lot of the films in this category, but man, go look at some of Colman Domingo's big monologues in Sing Sing and tell me that this one shouldn't win the Oscar.
Will Win: Conclave
- Conclave is snappy. It's got the prestige of a classic Oscar winner while also having an airport thriller esque entertainment value. I am guessing this is where it gets an Oscar.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Should and Will Win: The Wild Robot
- Let me just say ... when I finally watched FLOW several weeks back, I was floored. And it's now right up there for me alongside The Wild Robot as my pick for 2024's best animated movie. But I will give just the slightest edge to The Wild Robot both in terms of my personal pick and my pick to win the Oscar. Flow has gained a lot of momentum, but I don't know if it's gained quite *enough* momentum to topple the bigger movie that's been beloved for many months prior to voting. So an upset could happen, but I'll still bet on The Wild Robot.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:
Should and Will Win: I'm Still Here
-
Interestingly, Flow is also in this category. But with the implosion of Emilia Perez, the smart money would be on Best Picture nominee I'm Still Here - which is a harrowing, incredibly-acted, emotionally-affecting film. Likely a lock.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Should and Will Win: Dune: Part Two
- You could make the argument for a few movies on this list. And from a pure technical standpoint I might actually give the award to Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes. But personally, for me, this category is one part technical and one part artistry - f/x that aided in telling the best and most compelling story. And that to me makes it Dune's award to lose. Because Dune II was one of the very best films of 2024, and its visuals were spectacular and unique and memorable.
BEST DOCUMENTARY:
- Should and Will Win: Porcelain War
- I sadly / shamefully haven't seen any of this year's documentary nominees (though another snub worth mentioning: where was Will & Harper on this list?). But I've heard good things about Porcelain War so I'm going with that one.
BEST FILM EDITING:
- Should and Will Win: Anora
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
- Should and Will Win: The Brutalist
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Should and Will Win: Dune: Part Two
BEST ANIMATED FILM SHORT:
- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: Magic Candies
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: Incident
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:
- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: I'm Not a Robot
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
- Should and Will Win: Wicked
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
- Should and Will Win: Wicked
BEST SOUND:
Should Win: Dune: Part Two
- Dune II was total sensory overload, especially when seen in IMAX. But ...
- Because voters will just figure "hey, I liked the music in this one, so that means Best Sound?" The music is, of course, really good though.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
- Should and Will Win: The Brutalist
- Again, how in the name of John Williams was Challengers not nominated here? In light of that snub though, I would easily go with The Brutalist - which had a tremendous score that really helped elevate the film. I've got to imagine it wins out.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
- Should and Will Win: “El Mal" (Emilia Perez)
- Somehow, as part of all the (in many senses deserved) Emilia Perez backlash, people are now accusing the movie's music of not being good. But I really enjoyed the film's musical numbers, and "El Mal" was, IMO, pretty awesome both as a song and as a filmed sequence in the movie. I think voters will still give it some love despite everything else going on around the film.
And there you have it. As I've said, this is a VERY tough year to predict in many instances, and a lot could happen and there could be some genuine surprises. But despite various controversies, there are still a ton of fantastic films in this year's race, and I'll be genuinely happy in most instances for whomever wins (but yes, I'm rooting for Anora).
Celebrate film!
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