OSCARS 2023 Thoughts and Predictions:
- 2022 was such a fantastic year for movies, and this year's Oscars are absolutely packed with all-time awesome films. In almost every category this year, there are multiple nominees who I'd be more than happy to see take home gold.
So why do I still feel like something is off about this year's ceremonies?
Maybe it's just the lingering bad taste from last year's "slap" incident. Or maybe, it's the lingering issues that still plague these awards and the discourse around them. Let's dive in.
For one thing ... while the Academy has undoubtedly made moves to address its historical lack of diversity - and has, in recent years, given top awards to out-of-the-box movies like Parasite - there is still a distinct feeling of same-old when it comes to these awards. Yes, it's cool to see a movie like Everything Everywhere All At Once get so many (well-deserved!) nominations this year. After all, aside from being next-level great, the film is both a truly quirky original and a film with a predominantly Asian cast. So yeah, it's refreshing to see a movie like this get its due (and enter the awards as a frontrunner, at that). At the same time, the Academy still feels like it has a long way to go as far as diversity goes. This applies to a need to better recognize women and BIPOC talent - and it does seem odd that movies like Till, The Woman King, The Inspection, and She Said were mostly ignored by this year's awards. It also applies to a need to recognize a diversity of genres. 2022 was a landmark year for horror movies, for example. But for the most part, even the best horror movies and performances (Mia Goth in Pearl, anyone?) still fly under the radar come awards season.
The above also ties into the continued circus that is awards campaigning. Oh to live in a world where Academy members are diehard film fans who proactively seek out dozens of the best movies each year. But no, they must be wined, dined, and wooed by big-money campaigns to be convinced of a film's awards-season pedigree. This means that studios must very selectively choose which of their films to "push" for the Oscars - so horror, for example, perennially gets left in the cold. It also means that a lot of smaller and truly independent films don't get serious consideration. This year, however, Andrea Riseborough broke through the clutter - and snagged a surprise acting nomination for her indie film To Leslie. Many were happy to see such a small film get recognition. But of course, the discourse quickly became more so about how Riseborough's camp used her famous friends and supporters to give the actress and unfair edge. The whole situation is pretty convoluted, so I'm not going to weigh in any further. Suffice it to say, I hope the actual takeaway here is that the Oscars need to find more ways to champion indie films rather than exclude them.
Finally - and this is nothing new - but I found it particularly off-putting this year where, like I said, SO many amazing movies are in awards contention. I'm referring, of course, to the annual tradition of publications like The Hollywood Reporter and Entertainment Weekly putting out interviews with anonymous Academy members, regarding their "brutally honest" takes on that year's nominees. Sometimes, when egregiously undeserving movies get nominations, these pieces can be snarky fun. But this year, it was constant cringe as I read misguided and flat-out dumb takes dissing incredible films like Tar and The Fabelmans. Sure, not every movie is everyone's cup of tea - but the confidence with which some people rip into these films and paint their opinion as objective fact ... well, I get enough of that on Twitter, thank you. But again, reading these hot takes ... it's demoralizing. Because it shows that even Academy members are not immune to the kind of bad take discourse that you see all over social media. Reading them complain about "wokeness" and other made-up issues - ugh! - it makes you wish they'd let actual film fans vote on these things, rather than whoever these clearly bitter and out of touch souls may be.
And that's the double-edged sword of The Oscars. On one hand, I always love the discussions and debates about movies leading up to the awards each year. I love the way these awards encourage casual movie watchers to check out so many great films. And I love that Oscar day is a day for celebrating one of the things I love most ... <putting on best Vin Diesel voice> ... "da movies." But what I like less is all the *other stuff* that undermines the focus on the movies themselves - especially in this social media age where so much discussion boils down to people screaming at each other in three-sentence bursts.
So please, let's make it about the movies. Let's celebrate a year, 2022, that was in so many ways a great one for the artform.
And with that said, as is
tradition ... here are my Top 10 OSCAR SNUBS for this year:
1.) RRR for Best Picture
- With no nominations save for Best Song, RRR was majorly snubbed at this year's Oscars. The movie is a big, entertaining spectacle filled with amazing action, stunning visuals, memorable music, and a spirit that is infections.
2.) Mia Goth for Best Actress for Pearl
- Two of my favorite movie-going experiences of 2022 were Ti West's X and Pearl, both featuring all-timer turns from everyone's new favorite actor, Mia Goth. In Pearl in particular, Goth turns in a true tour de force performance. Get with it, Academy and give great horror its due!
3.) Decision to Leave for Best Picture and Park Chan-wook for Best Director
- Why does Park Chan-wook so often get snubbed by the Oscars? He's one of our greatest living directors, with classics to his name like Oldboy and The Handmaiden. It seemed too that, post-Parasite, the Academy was becoming more open-minded when it came to Korean cinema. But somehow, Park Chan-wook's latest, Decision to Leave, got no love. Perhaps because it didn't have a major studio distributor in the US? Speaks to the issue I mention above. The movie's incredible though, so by all means - seek it out.
4.) Danielle Deadwyler for Best Actress for Till
- I really liked Till, and Danielle Deadwyler's leading performance was a true breakout moment. Deadwyler is devastating as the grieving mother of the murdered Emmet Till - who goes on to be a civil rights advocate and voice of the voiceless. A big omission.
5.) Joseph Kosinski for Best Director for Top Gun: Maverick
- Top Gun got a deserved Best Picture nom this year, but, um ... did the movie direct itself? If anything, the movie was a pure showcase for the directorial prowess of Joseph Kosinski - who delivered some of the best and most visceral aerial action ever put to screen. I've been a fan since the Tron: Legacy days, and it's odd to me that Kosinski failed to secure a nomination here.
6.) Margot Robbie for Best Actress for Babylon
- In time, I think the cult of Babylon will only grow - and many will look back and wonder how the heck Margot Robbie's powerhouse performance in this one failed to net her an Oscar nom. The movie seemed to divide critics upon release - and bombed at the box office. But I was one of the many who absolutely loved it, and who thought Robbie was robbed.
7.) Babylon for Best Picture and Damien Chazelle for Best Director
- And on that note, Babylon shoulda' been a contender. And it's visionary director, Damien Chazelle, should get his props for his dazzling, hyper-kinetic, hypnotic direction. This Hollywood parable is, in my view, truly something special.
8.) Jeremy Pope for Best Actor for The Inspection
- I was late in seeing The Inspection, but it's got an absolutely star-making performance from Jeremy Pope ... and it's a shame he wasn't recognized with an Oscar nom. The Inspection is a powerful, memorable film and Pope packs it with raw emotion.
9.) Dolly De Leon for Best Supporting Actress for Triangle of Sadness
- I loved Triangle of Sadness, so was happy to see it sneak into the Best Picture race this year. But sadly, one of the true standouts of the film - Dolly De Leon - was snubbed. De Leon dominates the final third of the movie, delivering a performance that's both darkly hilarious and powerfully resonant.
10.) The Menu for Best Original Screenplay
- The Menu was one of my absolute favorite movies of 2022. But it's a horror-comedy ... double poison when it comes to Oscar success. Still, in recent years movies like Get Out have actually won in the screenplay category, so I figured The Menu's bitingly hilarious script would have a shot this year. But no, the movie was totally ignored by the Oscars, and that's a shame.
Okay, on with the show. Here they are, my ...
2023 OSCAR PICKS AND PREDICTIONS:
BEST PICTURE:
Should Win: Tar
- I'm realizing more and more that Tar was a bit of a divisive movie. But man, to me, it was the Best Movie of 2022 (seriously, just check my Best of the Year blog post from December!). It's the kind of movie that will have, I think, a very long cultural lifespan - and be talked about and referenced for many years to come. Maybe even studied. A stunner of a movie anchored by an all-time great performance from Cate Blanchett.
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
- And don't get me wrong, I loved Everything Everywhere - and overall, I'm a huge fan of just about all of this year's nominated Best Picture films. Women Talking, Banshees, Fabelmans, Triangle of Sadness, Top Gun - all spectacular movies. I just thought Tar was the best. But the momentum just seems to be there for Everything Everywhere, and it's the sentimental favorite for many. I will be happy for the movie and the talent involved if it wins, no question. It will be super cool to see a movie so original and so outside of the usual Oscar-friendly trappings take home the big one.
BEST ACTOR:
Should Win: Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Full disclosure, I haven't yet seen The Whale. But to me, Best Actor awards should be judged like the NBA MVP award ... if the team isn't strong overall, then it's, IMO, somewhat disqualifying. And I know reviews of The Whale seem to be mixed at best. Banshees, meanwhile, features two all-timer performances from Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson (actually, three if you include Kerry Condon) ... and the movie itself is a masterpiece. My personal pick is the always fantastic Farrell.
Will Win: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
- But again, the best "story" of this year's Oscars is Brendan Fraser's big comeback. The narrative is too good to resist, and Fraser has only won more support thanks to his enthusiasm and humility on the Oscar interview circuit. I won't be mad if he wins - who doesn't love Brendan Fraser? - and I hope this is just the beginning of more great roles for him to come.
BEST ACTRESS:
Should and Will Win: Cate Blanchett (Tar)
- Blanchett seemed like an absolute lock here until recently. I mean, who could deny the towering, singular nature of her performance as Lydia Tar? But man, this has become one of the closest and hardest-to-call races of this year's Oscars. So yeah, Michelle Yeoh could take it. Or maybe even a Riseborough upset. But I still predict Blanchett will eke out a victory. Because as amazing as Michelle Yeoh is in Everything Everywhere, it's still one of many excellent performances in what is, really, an ensemble movie. Blanchett, meanwhile, is 100% the focus of Tar and carries the entire film. It's unreal. So putting all the extracurricular drama of this one aside, I've still got to go with Blanchett.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Should Win: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Another one where the narrative is 100% in favor of Ke Huy Quan. And I get it. It was a total joy to see the 80's child star return in such kick-ass fashion in Everything Everywhere. It's one of the best Hollywood comeback stories I've ever seen. But I still give the nod to Gleeson - one of my favorite actors ever. He's always great, but he's next-level in Banshees. It's a haunting, affecting, IMO iconic performance.
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
- But will I be upset if Ke Huy Quan wins? Hell no. Again, how can you not root for him? The guy is supremely likeable, humble ... and I hope that he, too, starts showing up in many more great movies in the immediate future. Seeing him give a winning speech at the Oscars would be a great moment, and I think desire for that moment will propel him to victory.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Should and Will Win: Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Another very, very tough one to call. Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu from Everything Everywhere are tough contenders. And Jamie Lee is another one where the narrative around her getting her first Oscar win is a super compelling one. Same goes for the great Angela Bassett, who was awesome as always in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. But I'm going out, perhaps, on a limb here - and predicting a Kerry Condon win. She crushed it in Banshees, and was in many ways the "anchor" of that movie that kept it grounded. And I think there will be enough big fans of Banshees to get her the win.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Should Win: Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
- A lot of people roll their eyes at the idea of Spielberg winning an Oscar in 2023. But the fact is, he has in fact been passed over many a time at these awards. And the fact also is: he deserves it for The Fabelmans. I mean, watch this movie, people. It's a smaller, more personal story - sure. But so many moments are directed with mind-blowing creativity, beauty, and elegance by Spielberg - helping to elevate the film to something truly special. There were so many moments in this film that filled me with awe at Spielberg's abilities behind the camera. I love The Daniels. But Fabelmans is a friggin' master class.
Will Win: The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
- And again, I think momentum is simply on Everything Everywhere - and The Daniels' side. I don't begrudge it. These guys are truly original thinkers with incredibly creative minds. And them winning would be a real game-changer for the Oscars in many ways. So I'll be happy if they win. I can't wait to see what they do next.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Should Win: Tar
- The script for Tar took me down a strange, dark rabbit hole. I thought about the movie for days, weeks - after seeing it. This is some real genius level stuff, in my view. So it's my pick.
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
- But you also can't deny the way that the Everything Everywhere script mixes huge, mind-bending ideas with absurd comedy but also real humanity. It's something I aspire to in my own writing, and I 100% look to the Daniels as an inspiration. Again, I think momentum will be on their side.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Should and Will Win: Women Talking
- I loved Women Talking and it's got one hell of a script. The dialogue crackles and hits hard. The movie has a nonstop intensity to it that's amazing considering its limited locations. This one will probably, sadly, not get the full level of Oscar love it deserves. But it should and will win here.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Should and Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
- Pinocchio was my easy pick here ... until I recently watched the surprisingly incredible Puss in Boots: The Last Wish. Still, Pinocchio feels like such a unique and special film - so artfully crafted, and so uniquely filled with that special brand of Guillermo Del Toro passion and visual splendor.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:
Should and Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
- It's an easy rule of thumb: when an international film is nominated in a bunch of other categories, it will win Best International Film at the Oscars. And so it goes with All Quiet. But I think the movie will win a lot of various awards this year, because it's a pretty great film and a really powerful one at that. Netflix's equally powerful promotional campaign probably doesn't hurt either.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Should and Will Win: Avatar: Way of the Water
- I was actually a bit torn on this one, because as crazy as Avatar 2's CG f/x are, part of me was more impressed with the more old-school wizardry of Top Gun Maverick. Still, I think the sheer amount of time, energy, money, and technology that went into Avatar will give it the win here. But you never know. I wouldn't count Maverick out.
BEST DOCUMENTARY:
- Should and Will Win: Navalny
BEST FILM EDITING:
- Should and Will Win: Top Gun Maverick
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
- Should and Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
- Should and Will Win: Babylon
BEST ANIMATED FILM SHORT:
- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: The Elephant Whisperer
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:
- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: Le Pupill
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
- Should and Will Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
- Should and Will Win: Elvis
BEST SOUND:
- Should and Will Win: Top Gun Maverick
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
- Should Win: TIE: Babylon and All Quiet on the Western Front
- Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
- Should and Will Win: “Naatu Naatu,” (RRR)
And ... there you have it. What do you think? We'll see how I do shortly. But like I said ... there are so many amazing films nominated this year ... I'll be happy with any number of winners.
Celebrate film!
