OSCARS 2025 - Pre-Show Thoughts & Predictions

 

 

OSCARS 2025 Thoughts and Predictions: 

It's weird ... I've long been a big fan of the run-up to the Oscars, but less so a fan of the show itself.* I love that annual window in November and December when great movie after great movie releases in theaters, when the discourse turns from dissecting the ups and downs of the big summer blockbusters to celebrating incredible filmmakers and their works. To me, all of the subsequent Oscar prediction back-and-forth is an extension of that celebration. Sure, there's a fun element of game-ification to it all. But it's also just another excuse to talk about the year's best movies.

*This year, I make and exception in that I AM indeed very excited for the show itself. Conan O'Brien is hosting, and I can't wait!

And sometimes ... there is, of course, a pretty wide gap between my picks for the year's best movies and what actually gets nominated (and then, in turn, what ends up as a front-runner) come awards season. And ironically, a big source of that discrepancy in recent years have been the films of Sean Baker. 

Sean Baker is one of the most talented and remarkable filmmakers working today, and he's made some of my favorite films of the last few decades, with projects like The Florida Project and Red Rocket. That said, he's been largely ignored by the Oscars. Perhaps his movies are too "small," too artsy, too indie, not grand enough for an awards show that likes to celebrate the big, the spectacular, the epic. But while Baker's movies can be small in scale, but are always grand in thematic ambition. Case in point: Anora. 

Anora was my favorite film of 2024, and it's arguably Baker's best movie to date. Surprisingly, given this recent history, it also finds itself in the odd position of being an Oscar front-runner. Could the Oscars have finally caught up to Baker? Or is it a larger cultural thing, where we are now in a world where innovative indie studios like A24 and Neon (that distributed Anora) are now the darlings both of core movie fans and, by extension, a body of younger and more with-it awards voters? Maybe Baker's time has finally come.

See also: The Substance. The Substance, from uber-indie distributor Mubie, is the exact kind of movie that creates buzz in today's marketplace: a gonzo horror movie with a powerful message, a movie that has to be seen (preferably with a packed audience) to be believed, a film designed to be a conversation-starter. In past years, there was no way in hell that a movie like The Substance would have been an awards contender. But its organic buzz, combined with its comeback-story narrative for star Demi Moore, has made it a surprise multi-Oscar award nominee. And its director, Coralie Fargeat (who first got on my radar for the awesomely grindhouse-y film Revenge), is this year's only female nominee for Best Director. So yeah, if The Substance wins, I will cheer.

The times, they are a-changin' (to quote the subject of Best Picture nominee A Complete Unknown). Smaller indies like Moonlight and crazier, more eclectic big-swings like Parasite and Everything Everywhere All At Once paved the way. Who knows what's possible now. 

But here's what I do know ... as much as we film nerds collectively love to rag on the Oscars, this year's awards - serving as a celebration of bold art as diverse as Anora and The Substance and Nickel Boys - will serve as a direct and welcome affront to this Dumb New World we're living in post the November 2024 election. And that is 100% worth cheering.

And with that said, as is tradition ... here are my Top 10 OSCAR SNUBS for this year:

1.) Challengers for Best Original Score

- Mind-boggling! Challengers had an instantly-iconic techno score from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross. Somehow, the Golden Globes got this very right while the Oscars got this very wrong. What happened?! 

 

2.) Sing Sing for Best Picture

 - The great Colman Domingo deservedly got a nom for this one, but Sing Sing is a Top 10 movie of 2024 and should have made the cut for Best Picture, easily.
 

3.) Danielle Deadwyler for Best Lead Actress for The Piano Lesson

- I was disappointed overall that the stellar The Piano Lesson was completely snubbed by this year's Oscars. But for Danielle Deadwyler, this is becoming a pattern. She's one of the best actors around, and she keeps getting snubbed.

4.) A Real Pain for Best Picture

- A Best Supporting Actor and Best Screenplay nomination - but no Best Picture? A Real Pain was one of 2024's best, and was one that should have been in the Best Picture mix. 

5.) Thelma for ... anything

- Movie fans agree: Thelma ruled. So where's the awards love? I mean, we're now getting crazy body horror movies like The Substance as nominees, but comedies still get no love? Funny movies are valid! 
  

6.) Glen Powell for Best Actor for Hit Man

- Glen Powell has delivered numerous big, movie star performances over the last few years. But his best acting ever can be seen in 2024's Hit Man, in which he gives us a legit awards-worthy performance. And yet - no Oscar nom. Come on now. 

 

7.) Lupita Nyong’o for Best Lead Actress for A Quiet Place: Day One

 - Okay, great performances in big horror franchise movies have next to no chance for awards nominations. But they should if they're as good as Lupita Nyong'O in A Quiet Place: Day One. Lupita has proven herself as one of the best actors working today and should be treated as such.

 

8.) Luca Guadagnino for Best Director for Challengers

 

-  This one feels egregious. Challengers was one of the most tour de force directorial efforts we've seen in a long while. And it might be Luca Guadagnino's best movie to date? Luca is on top of his game here.

9.) Tilda Swinton for Best Supporting Actress for Problemista

 

- Again - does great comedy count for nothing? Tilda Swinton gives us an all-timer supporting performance in the criminally under-seen Problemista - one of 2024's best films. A huge standout of 2024.

 

10.) Willa Fitzgerald for Best Lead Actress for Strange Darling

- I'm thrilled with the multiple noms for The Substance this year. But 2024 was an incredible year for horror overall. And one of the best horror/thrillers of the year was the amazing Strange Darling. And one of the things that made Strange Darling so great was the absolute stunner of a breakout performance from Willa Fitzgerald. Cast her in everything. And give her some awards!

Bonus: Will & Harper for Best Documentary Feature. I mean, this is a really strange omission. I loved this movie and it affected me greatly.

 

 

Okay, on with the show. Here they are, my ...

 

 2024 OSCAR PICKS AND PREDICTIONS:

BEST PICTURE:

Should and Will Win: Anora

- Honestly, this is one of the toughest years in a while to predict Best Picture. On paper, it feels like Anora should be the front-runner. But is it? As I discuss above, Sean Baker's films historically tend not to be Oscar darlings - and Anora while is incredible, it's also not exactly a film for everyone. Conclave is a "safer" choice. As is A Complete Unknown, which seems to be gaining momentum. And Wicked is the feel-good juggernaut. And The Brutalist the big-swing epic. I think the vote will be heavily divided. But I also think that there are enough people like me - who passionately feel that Anora is the best movie of 2024 - to help it edge out the competition. We shall see.

BEST ACTOR:

Should Win: Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)

- There are a ton of heavy-hitters in this category. But Colman Domingo was, again, the best of the bunch. His performance in Sing Sing is simply an all-timer. The man is the best in the biz right now, and in a fair world he would get his props.

Will Win: Timothee Chalomet (A Complete Unknown)

- But, it's probably going to be either Adrian Brody for The Brutalist or Club Chalomet's favorite son. And don't get me wrong, both were fantastic in their respective films. I give the slight edge to Chalomet here as he really carried A Complete Unknown, whereas Brody was helped by huge contributions from the also-nominated Guy Pierce and Felicity Jones. And it's finally Chalomet's time to be acknowledged as one of the best young actors going (see also: Dune II). Also, I am happy that Sebastian Stan was nominated for his searing performance as Donald Trump in The Apprentice ... but I just don't think there is appetite (understandably) to give that award out now at this moment (and same probably goes for Jeremy Strong in the Supporting Actor category).

BEST ACTRESS:

Should Win: Mikey Madison (Anora)

- Another loaded category. But for me, I would give it to Mikey Madison. Yes, she's young and this is her first big starring role. But who cares? She crushes it in Anora, delivering an instant-classic performance. And when you realize how completely different this role is versus her real life personality? Even more impressive. This and Colman Domingo in Sing Sing were the two best overall performances of 2024.

Will Win: Demi Moore (The Substance)

- But, this is the one with an incredible narrative. And I can't be too mad, because Demi Moore kills it in The Substance. That mirror scene alone, that secured her the Oscar. It's the best role of Moore's career. And for that, she will be rewarded (and will give a great speech). I'll also note though: I wouldn't be shocked if I'm Still Here's Fernanda Torres plays spoiler.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Should Win: Yura Borisov (Anora)

-Watching Anora, for much of its running time, you wouldn't think that Yura Borisov would be an Oscar contender ... until those final 15 minutes or so when the depth of his character comes into full view, and the entire performance is, beautifully, recontextualized. It's astounding. Borisov in Anora blew me away. I would give him this Oscar.

Will Win: Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)

 - I'm going to predict a bit of a surprise here. Because I know Kieran Culkin has won a bunch of awards and I know he is, in many ways, the favorite (and I thought he was fantastic in A Real Pain). However ... Edward Norton is kind of magical and amazing in A Complete Unknown, and it's a performance that sticks with you. Norton is approaching legendary status and has sort of reinvented himself in terms of the types of roles he excels at. I think he will end up taking this one. Note: I also love Guy Pierce in The Brutalist, but his performance there is so over-the-top and insane that I can't see him winning. But I would be amused if he did.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Should Win: Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)

- Felicity Jones enters the second half of The Brutalist like a total firecracker, and gives new life to the movie with a memorable and entertaining performance. Jones is always great in everything, and she particularly shines in this one. I'd give her the nod.

Will Win: Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)

 - And here's where it gets tricky, and here's where we get into the Emilia Perez of it all. Personally, I really loved the movie when I first saw it. I then read up on some of the controversies and it made my esteem for the movie drop just a bit. But then, all the Carla Sofia Gascone stuff came out and, yikes. That unfortunately tanked Gascone's awards chances and the film's Best Picture chances. But I think there is still love out there for the movie as a whole, and particularly for Zoe Saldana's performance in it. And it helps that the other contenders in this category, other than maybe Jones, aren't heavyweights per se (and how many Oscar voters watched all 3.5 hours of The Brutalist to see the brunt of Jones' performance?). So Saldana still gets it. And I won't be upset, because I still maintain that she is positively dynamite in Emilia Perez.

BEST DIRECTOR:

Should and Will Win: Sean Baker (Anora)

- Once again, I could see Anora winning a lot and also winning nothing. It's hard to say and it's going to be tight. I feel like Baker's main competition here is probably Brady Corbett for The Brutalist. But Baker has the track record that Corbett does not, and I could see a scenario where voters are like "yeah, we probably should have been nominating this dude for his last several films, so ...". But again, this could go in some different directions. James Mangold could be a spoiler for A Complete Unknown. I don't see Coralie Fargeat winning, but it would sort of rule if she did. We'll see. But ultimately I hope it's finally Baker's year, and I think it just might be.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Should and Will Win: Anora

- It probably comes down to Anora vs. A Real Pain here. And both are SO well written and are deserving. But man, Sean Baker is quite simply a genius who, more than almost anyone, can make personal stories take on a metaphorical significance that feels urgent and timely. See also: The Florida Project. See also: Red Rocket. I see Anora winning this one.

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Should Win: Sing Sing

- Sing Sing is a powerful film that's got an undeniable script. I really like a lot of the films in this category, but man, go look at some of Colman Domingo's big monologues in Sing Sing and tell me that this one shouldn't win the Oscar.

Will Win: Conclave

- Conclave is snappy. It's got the prestige of a classic Oscar winner while also having an airport thriller esque entertainment value. I am guessing this is where it gets an Oscar.

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

Should and Will Win: The Wild Robot

- Let me just say ... when I finally watched FLOW several weeks back, I was floored. And it's now right up there for me alongside The Wild Robot as my pick for 2024's best animated movie. But I will give just the slightest edge to The Wild Robot both in terms of my personal pick and my pick to win the Oscar. Flow has gained a lot of momentum, but I don't know if it's gained quite *enough* momentum to topple the bigger movie that's been beloved for many months prior to voting. So an upset could happen, but I'll still bet on The Wild Robot.

 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:

Should and Will Win: I'm Still Here

- Interestingly, Flow is also in this category. But with the implosion of Emilia Perez, the smart money would be on Best Picture nominee I'm Still Here - which is a harrowing, incredibly-acted, emotionally-affecting film. Likely a lock.
 

 BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

Should and Will Win: Dune: Part Two

- You could make the argument for a few movies on this list. And from a pure technical standpoint I might actually give the award to Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes. But personally, for me, this category is one part technical and one part artistry - f/x that aided in telling the best and most compelling story. And that to me makes it Dune's award to lose. Because Dune II was one of the very best films of 2024, and its visuals were spectacular and unique and memorable.


BEST DOCUMENTARY:

- Should and Will Win: Porcelain War

- I sadly / shamefully haven't seen any of this year's documentary nominees (though another snub worth mentioning: where was Will & Harper on this list?). But I've heard good things about Porcelain War so I'm going with that one.

 

BEST FILM EDITING:

- Should and Will Win: Anora

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
 

- Should and Will Win: The Brutalist

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

Should and Will Win: Dune: Part Two

BEST ANIMATED FILM SHORT:

- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: Magic Candies

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:

- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: Incident

 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:

- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: I'm Not a Robot

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

- Should and Will Win: Wicked

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:

- Should and Will Win: Wicked

 

BEST SOUND:

Should Win: Dune: Part Two

- Dune II was total sensory overload, especially when seen in IMAX. But ...

Will Win: A Complete Unknown

- Because voters will just figure "hey, I liked the music in this one, so that means Best Sound?" The music is, of course, really good though.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

- Should and Will Win: The Brutalist

- Again, how in the name of John Williams was Challengers not nominated here? In light of that snub though, I would easily go with The Brutalist - which had a tremendous score that really helped elevate the film. I've got to imagine it wins out.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

- Should and Will Win:  “El Mal" (Emilia Perez)

- Somehow, as part of all the (in many senses deserved) Emilia Perez backlash, people are now accusing the movie's music of not being good. But I really enjoyed the film's musical numbers, and "El Mal" was, IMO, pretty awesome both as a song and as a filmed sequence in the movie. I think voters will still give it some love despite everything else going on around the film.

And there you have it. As I've said, this is a VERY tough year to predict in many instances, and a lot could happen and there could be some genuine surprises. But despite various controversies, there are still a ton of fantastic films in this year's race, and I'll be genuinely happy in most instances for whomever wins (but yes, I'm rooting for Anora).

Celebrate film!

OSCARS 2024 - Pre-Show Thoughts & Predictions

 

OSCARS 2024 Thoughts and Predictions: 

What a great year 2023 was for movies. I say that with it being March of 2024, where, at least as of now, it's hard to see this year matching last year's crazy highs of awesome film releases (the epic, just-released Dune Pt. 2 notwithstanding. So I go into this year's Oscars feeling uncharacteristically good about the whole thing. Up and down the ballot, every category is filled with so much greatness that there are few scenarios where I'd be actively upset about a given winner. It's an embarrassment of riches this year. I mean, every year I talk about my big Oscar hope being that the ceremony helps spread the love for all of the great movies released in a given year, and for the art of cinema in general. And I think this year's ceremony is poised to do that. The nominees run the gamut from big, broad-appealing blockbusters like Oppenheimer and Barbie to smaller films like American Fiction and Past Lives. But even this year's nominated blockbusters are artful, cerebral, bold movies that are anything but standard. The miracle of Oppenheimer is that a heavy, lengthy, morally complex tale of a dark chapter in American history became a mega-blockbuster (thank you Christopher Nolan). And the miracle of Barbie is that a movie based on a toy became one of the most slyly subversive satires we've seen from a big studio ... ever (thank you Greta Gerwig). Honestly, just invoking the names of Nolan and Gerwig gets me excited about the movies. The talented creative forces behind this year's nominees are a star-studded mix of familiar and new names - people that are long-deserving of awards love and others who are likely going to be Oscar fixtures for years to come.

The Oscars are still far from perfect. There's still major genre bias that all but ignores a film like the spectacular Godzilla Minus One except in certain categories like Visual FX. Comedy is still a total no-go come awards season, even in a year that we saw great ones like the hilarious Bottoms. And awards-season campaigns from big studios still carry way too much weight, and too often great indie films like Blackberry get overlooked because a smaller studio like IFC just doesn't have the marketing muscle to compete with the major players.

All that said, I hope this year's Oscars - and future Oscar ceremonies as well - can serve as annual reminders to the masses that there is great cinema out there worth supporting. Great movies that are worth going to the theater to see. Great longform stories that are far more nurturing for one's soul than endless, mindless scrolling through social media. 

Ever since 2020, I've felt a renewed appreciation for seeing movies in the theater, on the big screen. And I think a lot of others feel the same. Witness the applause at my local AMC whenever the Nicole Kidman ad plays. It's an in-joke for us AMC A-Listers, sure - but it's also a sign that for those of us who are passionate about movies, the theater really has become a kind of holy temple for us in these crazy, uncertain times. There's nothing better than being in that big, dark room as the lights go down - surrounded by fellow fans ready to see if the movie about to play will deliver the goods. 

So let's celebrate that this year. Forget the celebrity, the red carpets, the studio campaigns, etc. Make the Oscars a celebration of great movies - period.

And with that said, as is tradition ... here are my Top 10 OSCAR SNUBS for this year:

1.) Air for Best Picture

- In any other year, Air would be an Oscar favorite - and it seemed like it would be upon release last summer. But for whatever reason, the movie's awards momentum completely fizzled after a month or two. But Air is a classic American tale, a dramatic, inspiring, feel-good story that was one of my favorites of 2023.

2.) Godzilla Minus One for Best Picture

 - Godzilla Minus One had no chance of being nominated for Best Picture. But it shoulda' been a contender. The movie came out of nowhere at the end of last year and quickly gained huge word of mouth buzz. Deservedly, because it was absolutely awesome. One of the best blockbusters in modern history should have been acknowledged for the best that it is.

 3.) Leonardo DiCaprio for Best Actor for Killers of the Flower Moon

- Leo is so good in everything, but it's a bit baffling why he wasn't nominated for arguably one of his most interesting roles to date - as the dense, bumbling, easily-manipulated, morally-grey lead in Martin Scorsese's masterful Killers of the Flower Moon.

4.) Glenn Howerton for Best Supporting Actor for Blackberry

- If you know, you know. Blackberry was the low-key, underseen masterpiece of 2023. But it was so good, so hilarious, and so deserving of more Oscar love than what it got (none). Glenn Howerton killed it in this one. Give him his props!

5.) Fantasia Barrino for Best Actress for The Color Purple

- Fantasia was dynamite in The Color Purple, and it was pretty surprising that she didn't get a Best Actress nom. She tore the house down with some of her big musical numbers, bringing my entire theater to applause. 
 
6.) Margot Robbie for Best Actress for Barbie

- I didn't necessarily think Robbie was a lock for Barbie, per se. But what's crazy to me is that Margot Robbie was snubbed LAST YEAR for her tour de force performance in Babylon, and then again this year for the massive cultural sensation that is Barbie. Weird.

 7.) Sandra Hüller for Best Supporting Actress for The Zone of Interest

 - I know no one wants to double-dip when it comes to multiple noms for one actor across two films. But as good as Sandra Huller was in Anatomy of a Fall (for which she is nominated) ... she may have been even better in the harrowing The Zone of Interest? It's an amazing performance that will stand the test of time.

8.) Rosamund Pike for Best Supporting Actress for Saltburn

-  Saltburn got left out of this year's Oscar race, which is strange to me since Emerald Fennell's previous feature Promising Young Woman was a multi-category nominee. But if there was once Saltburn snub that really stung, it was for the always fantastic Rosamund Pike. She crushed it in Saltburn.

9.) Air for Best Original Screenplay

- Going back to Air for a moment, this was a Black List screenplay that was absolutely top-tier. In fact, upon re-watching the movie several months back, I was struck by just how great the dialogue is, how well-drawn the characters are, and how the overall pacing is so spot-on. This was a hell of a screenplay.

10.) How to Blow Up a Pipeline for ... anything

- Another movie that just didn't get a real awards push, but should have. How to Blow Up a Pipeline was easily one of my Top 10 of 2023 - an edge-of-your-seat thriller that felt urgent and of-the-moment. I was floored by this film and I think you just might be too. So give it a watch and wonder why it didn't get any Oscar attention.

 

Okay, on with the show. Here they are, my ...

 

 
2024 OSCAR PICKS AND PREDICTIONS:

 

BEST PICTURE:

Should and Will Win: Oppenheimer

- Oppenheimer is this year's megaton awards-season movie, and the one that's going to take home a lot of big prizes at this year's Oscars - no question. And I'm sure some are salty about that - no one likes to see one film dominate all others. But I'm okay with it in this case, because Oppenheimer was in my view simply that good. One of the best films that Christopher Nolan has ever directed and one of the most powerful experiences I've ever had in a movie theater. It did blockbuster box office despite being a smart, challenging film. It looked amazing and had a stacked cast that crushed it top to bottom. This was the Best Picture of 2023 and this will win Best Picture of 2023. 

BEST ACTOR:

Should Win: Colman Domingo (Rustin)

- I know I'm probably in the minority on this, but my favorite leading actor performance of 2023 was Colman Domingo in Rustin. This was big, theatrical, grade-A acting and another feather in the cap of the ultra-talented Domingo - who had a killer year between this and The Color Purple. He was unforgettable playing real-life civil rights leader Bayard Rustin.

Will Win: Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)

- This one is actually a bit of a toss-up, as Cillian Murphy has seemingly been gaining momentum for Oppenheimer. That said, I'll still place my bet on the great Paul Giamatti, a longtime favorite who feels overdue for a big awards win. Giamatti has endeared himself to voters this awards season, and he delivered one of his best-ever performances in the charming The Holdovers.

BEST ACTRESS:

Should Win: Emma Stone (Poor Things)

- This category is absolutely loaded with great performances this year, and I wouldn't really be upset by any of the nominees winning. Sandra Huller? Amazing. Annette Benning? So great. But my personal pick is Emma Stone in Poor Things, which to me was one of the best and most next-level acting performances I've seen in a long time. Taking the character of Bella Baxter through a rapid-fire mental evolution from infant to adult - no easy feat. But Stone pulls it off in astonishing fashion. Between Poor Things and The Curse, she was an absolute MVP of 2023.

Will Win: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)

- I also really loved Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon - an outstanding, understated, searing performance. To me ... it was a supporting role though. So I sort of hesitate to give her the nod. But, there's no doubt that a Gladstone win would carry with it a lot of weight and meaning, and really help to underline the tragedies depicted in KoTFM that still reverberate today. I think she'll edge out Stone to win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Should Win: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)

- De Niro is a huge underdog in this year's race for whatever reason ... but to me, his turn in Killers was one of this best acting performances in decades. This was De Niro at the height of his powers, crafting a cunning, manipulative villain for the ages in a performance that was funny, scary, and 100% awards-worthy.

Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)

 - RDJ is almost unrecognizable in Oppenheimer, but that may in part because we've become so used to seeing him in Tony Stark mode. I think the stark contrast (!) between his iconic MCU role and his performance in Oppenheimer will work in Downey Jr's favor - as will the general love for Oppenheimer overall. 

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Should Win: Jodie Foster (Nyad)

- Of the nominees (no Sandra Huller for Zone of Interest, alas), Jodie Foster's emotional turn in Nyad was, I think, my favorite. Foster's had an incredible (don't call it a) comeback of late, also killing it in True Detective: Night Country. But it was her supporting turn in Nyad that really reminded me just how great of an actor she can be.

Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

 - If there's one acting category you can 100% bet on this year, this is it. Randolph is taking it, without a doubt. And when she does, I will be happy for her. She's excellent in The Holdovers in a truly breakout role, holding her own with an icon like Paul Giamatti and delivering a ton of humor and heart. I hope we see a lot more great parts for her in the years to come.

BEST DIRECTOR:

Should and Will Win: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)

- Christopher Nolan is one of the great directors of the modern movie era - a titanic creative force who gave us films like Memento, Inception, and The Dark Knight. And yet, he's never won an Oscar ... until now. Nolan is all but a lock to win here, and it will be well-deserved. Oppenheimer was in theory his "small" movie, but Nolan doesn't really do small. He directs the film with his usual thunderous force and creates a film both epic and intimate, filled with scenes and moments that will forever be etched into my brain. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Should Win: Past Lives

- Past Lives was one of my favorite films of 2023 - and while it's unlikely to win a lot of Oscars this year, I'd love to see it take home the award for Best Original Screenplay. The movie is uniquely structured and packed with emotion. It's a story that deserves to win awards.

Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall

- That said, Anatomy of a Fall is the more "writerly" movie, and I think it will take this one. The film is full of colorful dialogue, courtroom drama, and well-executed twists and turns. So I predict it takes the prize.

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Should and Will Win: Oppenheimer.

- This category is an embarrassment of riches this year, and I wouldn't be mad if the wonderfully-written American Fiction, or Barbie, or Poor Things, or Zone of Interest were to win. But Oppenheimer is that movie, and Oppenheimer has an undeniable (the favorite term of screenwriters everywhere) screenplay that is, in and of itself, a pretty remarkable work (seriously, give it a look!).

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

Should Win: Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse

- The previous Spider-Man animated film deservedly won Best Animated Movie a few years back - and for a while I thought its sequel was a lock to win as well. And it still might! But, I predict that Academy members will pass on honoring the trilogy's middle chapter - as undeniably amazing as it is - in order to give the gold to one of the all-time greats in the field of animation ...

Will Win: The Boy and the Heron

- Because yeah, if The Boy and the Heron really is the final film of the legendary Hayao Miyazaki, then it does seem a fitting moment to honor one of the pioneers of Japanese animation / anime. For me, this film was a visually-stunning if not somewhat confusing odyssey - but look, Spiderverse had a moment and will have more. For now, I'm cool with this one going to Miyazaki.

 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:

Should and Will Win: The Zone of Interest

- I've seen a few of this year's international nominees, and I loved 'em all. Perfect Days didn't really get a release until early 2024, but what a phenomenal film that will surely rank highly on my Best of the Year list this year. And Society of the Snow, available on Netflix, is an absolute barn-burner as well. A must-watch! That being said, The Zone of Interest was in my Top 5 of 2023 and it's a harrowing, all-timer of a movie that will be watched and studied and debated for years and years to come. It's a masterpiece. A stunning examination of the banality of evil as relates to the Holocaust, The Zone of Interest should and will win this award. Plus, let's be real: it's pretty much an unwritten rule of the Oscars that any International film also nominated for Best Picture will win the former.
 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

Should and Will Win: Godzilla Minus One

- All hail the great Godzilla Minus One. This one needs to win, and if it doesn't ... I'll be mad. An epic thrill-ride of a film, Godzilla Minus One didn't just have great visuals - but it used them in an ingenious and memorable fashion. Give it to Godzilla.


BEST DOCUMENTARY:

- Should and Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol

 

BEST FILM EDITING:

- Should and Will Win: Oppenheimer

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
 

- Should and Will Win: Oppenheimer

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

Should Win: Poor Things

- It's a toss-up for me (and probably for Academy voters) between Poor Things and Barbie. Personally, I give the edge to Poor Things imaginative sets and unique visual style. But ...

Will Win: Barbie

- Because Barbie was so unexpectedly great as a whole, and because the filmmakers did indeed to a pretty amazing job bringing the pink-hued world of Barbie to surreal life ... I think Barbie takes it.

BEST ANIMATED FILM SHORT:

- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: Pachyderme

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:

- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: The ABCs of Book Banning

 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:

- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

- I did watch Wes Anderson's short Henry Sugar (currently on Netflix) and thought it was an interesting if perhaps slightly indulgent showcase of the director's quirky style (I much preferred Anderson's longform 2023 film, Asteroid City, which unfortunately was shut out of any Oscar noms). But I think the Anderson and Netflix of it all will propel the Benedict Cumberbatch-starring Sugar to Oscar gold.

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

- Should and Will Win: Poor Things

- Another toss-up with Barbie, I think. But Poor Things eye-catching costume design - a huge part of establishing the film's dark, strange, storybook world - should win out.

 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:

- Should and Will Win: Poor Things

- Again, it's hard to say, and you never know because Oppenheimer's overall momentum could end up extending to even a category like this one. But man, as with costume design, Poor Things had such memorable style and makeup - from Emma Stone's various looks to Willem Dafoe's scarred Dr. Frankenstein-esque mad scientist. 

 

BEST SOUND:

Should Win: The Zone of Interest

- I actually am really rooting for Zone of Interest to win this one, because as amazing as the sound was in Oppenheimer, Zone of Interest is a movie ABOUT sound. The entire film is built around juxtaposition, and so much of that comes from the contrast of ordinary images with horrifying sounds occurring in the background. Some of the most memorable use of specific sounds I've ever seen in a film.

Will Win: Oppenheimer

- So maybe, because of above, Zone of Interest does indeed win here? Maybe. But I'd still bet on Oppenheimer - because yes, the movie has some of the most memorable snap, crackles, and pops I've ever heard - burned into my brain for sure. But also, again, Oppenheimer is the 500 lb gorilla of this year's Oscar race.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

- Should Win: TIE:Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon

- Two amazing scores. Ludwig Göransson killed it with Oppenheimer, and the late great Robbie Robertson (of The Band) provided a very memorable score for Killers of the Flower Moon. A toss-up for me.

- Will Win: Oppenheimer

- But again ... Oppenheimer's got the momentum. Hard to bet against it.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

- Should Win:  “I’m Just Ken" (Barbie)

- The actual best song from Barbie!

- Will Win: “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie)

- The song that will win an Oscar from Barbie, because it's more serious or something.

And there we go. Like I said, I'm a huge fan of almost every nominated film this year. So all I can really say is please, do yourself a favor an go watch 'em. American Fiction, Past Lives, Perfect Days, The Zone of Interest, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, Rustin, Nyad, Godzilla Minus One - all incredible, all well worth your time.

Celebrate film!

OSCARS 2023 - Pre-Show Thoughts & Predictions

 

OSCARS 2023 Thoughts and Predictions: 

- 2022 was such a fantastic year for movies, and this year's Oscars are absolutely packed with all-time awesome films. In almost every category this year, there are multiple nominees who I'd be more than happy to see take home gold.

So why do I still feel like something is off about this year's ceremonies?

Maybe it's just the lingering bad taste from last year's "slap" incident. Or maybe, it's the lingering issues that still plague these awards and the discourse around them. Let's dive in.

For one thing ... while the Academy has undoubtedly made moves to address its historical lack of diversity - and has, in recent years, given top awards to out-of-the-box movies like Parasite - there is still a distinct feeling of same-old when it comes to these awards. Yes, it's cool to see a movie like Everything Everywhere All At Once get so many (well-deserved!) nominations this year. After all, aside from being next-level great, the film is both a truly quirky original and a film with a predominantly Asian cast. So yeah, it's refreshing to see a movie like this get its due (and enter the awards as a frontrunner, at that). At the same time, the Academy still feels like it has a long way to go as far as diversity goes. This applies to a need to better recognize women and BIPOC talent - and it does seem odd that movies like Till, The Woman King, The Inspection, and She Said were mostly ignored by this year's awards. It also applies to a need to recognize a diversity of genres. 2022 was a landmark year for horror movies, for example. But for the most part, even the best horror movies and performances (Mia Goth in Pearl, anyone?) still fly under the radar come awards season. 

The above also ties into the continued circus that is awards campaigning. Oh to live in a world where Academy members are diehard film fans who proactively seek out dozens of the best movies each year. But no, they must be wined, dined, and wooed by big-money campaigns to be convinced of a film's awards-season pedigree. This means that studios must very selectively choose which of their films to "push" for the Oscars - so horror, for example, perennially gets left in the cold. It also means that a lot of smaller and truly independent films don't get serious consideration. This year, however, Andrea Riseborough broke through the clutter - and snagged a surprise acting nomination for her indie film To Leslie. Many were happy to see such a small film get recognition. But of course, the discourse quickly became more so about how Riseborough's camp used her famous friends and supporters to give the actress and unfair edge. The whole situation is pretty convoluted, so I'm not going to weigh in any further. Suffice it to say, I hope the actual takeaway here is that the Oscars need to find more ways to champion indie films rather than exclude them.

Finally - and this is nothing new - but I found it particularly off-putting this year where, like I said, SO many amazing movies are in awards contention. I'm referring, of course, to the annual tradition of publications like The Hollywood Reporter and Entertainment Weekly putting out interviews with anonymous Academy members, regarding their "brutally honest" takes on that year's nominees. Sometimes, when egregiously undeserving movies get nominations, these pieces can be snarky fun. But this year, it was constant cringe as I read misguided and flat-out dumb takes dissing incredible films like Tar and The Fabelmans. Sure, not every movie is everyone's cup of tea - but the confidence with which some people rip into these films and paint their opinion as objective fact ... well, I get enough of that on Twitter, thank you. But again, reading these hot takes ... it's demoralizing. Because it shows that even Academy members are not immune to the kind of bad take discourse that you see all over social media. Reading them complain about "wokeness" and other made-up issues - ugh! - it makes you wish they'd let actual film fans vote on these things, rather than whoever these clearly bitter and out of touch souls may be. 

And that's the double-edged sword of The Oscars. On one hand, I always love the discussions and debates about movies leading up to the awards each year. I love the way these awards encourage casual movie watchers to check out so many great films. And I love that Oscar day is a day for celebrating one of the things I love most ... <putting on best Vin Diesel voice> ... "da movies." But what I like less is all the *other stuff* that undermines the focus on the movies themselves - especially in this social media age where so much discussion boils down to people screaming at each other in three-sentence bursts. 

So please, let's make it about the movies. Let's celebrate a year, 2022, that was in so many ways a great one for the artform.

And with that said, as is tradition ... here are my Top 10 OSCAR SNUBS for this year:

1.) RRR for Best Picture

- With no nominations save for Best Song, RRR was majorly snubbed at this year's Oscars. The movie is a big, entertaining spectacle filled with amazing action, stunning visuals, memorable music, and a spirit that is infections.

2.) Mia Goth for Best Actress for Pearl

 - Two of my favorite movie-going experiences of 2022 were Ti West's X and Pearl, both featuring all-timer turns from everyone's new favorite actor, Mia Goth. In Pearl in particular, Goth turns in a true tour de force performance. Get with it, Academy and give great horror its due!

 3.) Decision to Leave for Best Picture and Park Chan-wook for Best Director

- Why does Park Chan-wook so often get snubbed by the Oscars? He's one of our greatest living directors, with classics to his name like Oldboy and The Handmaiden. It seemed too that, post-Parasite, the Academy was becoming more open-minded when it came to Korean cinema. But somehow, Park Chan-wook's latest, Decision to Leave, got no love. Perhaps because it didn't have a major studio distributor in the US? Speaks to the issue I mention above. The movie's incredible though, so by all means - seek it out.

4.) Danielle Deadwyler for Best Actress for Till

- I really liked Till, and Danielle Deadwyler's leading performance was a true breakout moment. Deadwyler is devastating as the grieving mother of the murdered Emmet Till - who goes on to be a civil rights advocate and voice of the voiceless. A big omission.

5.) Joseph Kosinski for Best Director for Top Gun: Maverick

- Top Gun got a deserved Best Picture nom this year, but, um ... did the movie direct itself? If anything, the movie was a pure showcase for the directorial prowess of Joseph Kosinski - who delivered some of the best and most visceral aerial action ever put to screen. I've been a fan since the Tron: Legacy days, and it's odd to me that Kosinski failed to secure a nomination here.
 
6.) Margot Robbie for Best Actress for Babylon

- In time, I think the cult of Babylon will only grow - and many will look back and wonder how the heck Margot Robbie's powerhouse performance in this one failed to net her an Oscar nom. The movie seemed to divide critics upon release - and bombed at the box office. But I was one of the many who absolutely loved it, and who thought Robbie was robbed.

 7.) Babylon for Best Picture and Damien Chazelle for Best Director

- And on that note, Babylon shoulda' been a contender. And it's visionary director, Damien Chazelle, should get his props for his dazzling, hyper-kinetic, hypnotic direction. This Hollywood parable is, in my view, truly something special.

8.) Jeremy Pope for Best Actor for The Inspection

-  I was late in seeing The Inspection, but it's got an absolutely star-making performance from Jeremy Pope ... and it's a shame he wasn't recognized with an Oscar nom. The Inspection is a powerful, memorable film and Pope packs it with raw emotion.

9.) Dolly De Leon for Best Supporting Actress for Triangle of Sadness

- I loved Triangle of Sadness, so was happy to see it sneak into the Best Picture race this year. But sadly, one of the true standouts of the film - Dolly De Leon - was snubbed. De Leon dominates the final third of the movie, delivering a performance that's both darkly hilarious and powerfully resonant.

10.) The Menu for Best Original Screenplay

- The Menu was one of my absolute favorite movies of 2022. But it's a horror-comedy ... double poison when it comes to Oscar success. Still, in recent years movies like Get Out have actually won in the screenplay category, so I figured The Menu's bitingly hilarious script would have a shot this year. But no, the movie was totally ignored by the Oscars, and that's a shame. 

 

Okay, on with the show. Here they are, my ...

 

 
2023 OSCAR PICKS AND PREDICTIONS:

 

BEST PICTURE:

Should Win: Tar

- I'm realizing more and more that Tar was a bit of a divisive movie. But man, to me, it was the Best Movie of 2022 (seriously, just check my Best of the Year blog post from December!). It's the kind of movie that will have, I think, a very long cultural lifespan - and be talked about and referenced for many years to come. Maybe even studied. A stunner of a movie anchored by an all-time great performance from Cate Blanchett.

 Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once

 - And don't get me wrong, I loved Everything Everywhere - and overall, I'm a huge fan of just about all of this year's nominated Best Picture films. Women Talking, Banshees, Fabelmans, Triangle of Sadness, Top Gun - all spectacular movies. I just thought Tar was the best. But the momentum just seems to be there for Everything Everywhere, and it's the sentimental favorite for many. I will be happy for the movie and the talent involved if it wins, no question. It will be super cool to see a movie so original and so outside of the usual Oscar-friendly trappings take home the big one.

 

BEST ACTOR:

Should Win: Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)

- Full disclosure, I haven't yet seen The Whale. But to me, Best Actor awards should be judged like the NBA MVP award ... if the team isn't strong overall, then it's, IMO, somewhat disqualifying. And I know reviews of The Whale seem to be mixed at best. Banshees, meanwhile, features two all-timer performances from Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson (actually, three if you include Kerry Condon) ... and the movie itself is a masterpiece. My personal pick is the always fantastic Farrell.

Will Win: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

- But again, the best "story" of this year's Oscars is Brendan Fraser's big comeback. The narrative is too good to resist, and Fraser has only won more support thanks to his enthusiasm and humility on the Oscar interview circuit. I won't be mad if he wins - who doesn't love Brendan Fraser? - and I hope this is just the beginning of more great roles for him to come.

BEST ACTRESS:

Should and Will Win: Cate Blanchett (Tar)

- Blanchett seemed like an absolute lock here until recently. I mean, who could deny the towering, singular nature of her performance as Lydia Tar? But man, this has become one of the closest and hardest-to-call races of this year's Oscars. So yeah, Michelle Yeoh could take it. Or maybe even a Riseborough upset. But I still predict Blanchett will eke out a victory. Because as amazing as Michelle Yeoh is in Everything Everywhere, it's still one of many excellent performances in what is, really, an ensemble movie. Blanchett, meanwhile, is 100% the focus of Tar and carries the entire film. It's unreal. So putting all the extracurricular drama of this one aside, I've still got to go with Blanchett.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Should Win: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)

- Another one where the narrative is 100% in favor of Ke Huy Quan. And I get it. It was a total joy to see the 80's child star return in such kick-ass fashion in Everything Everywhere. It's one of the best Hollywood comeback stories I've ever seen. But I still give the nod to Gleeson - one of my favorite actors ever. He's always great, but he's next-level in Banshees. It's a haunting, affecting, IMO iconic performance.

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

 - But will I be upset if Ke Huy Quan wins? Hell no. Again, how can you not root for him? The guy is supremely likeable, humble ... and I hope that he, too, starts showing up in many more great movies in the immediate future. Seeing him give a winning speech at the Oscars would be a great moment, and I think desire for that moment will propel him to victory.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Should and Will Win: Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)

- Another very, very tough one to call. Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu from Everything Everywhere are tough contenders. And Jamie Lee is another one where the narrative around her getting her first Oscar win is a super compelling one. Same goes for the great Angela Bassett, who was awesome as always in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. But I'm going out, perhaps, on a limb here - and predicting a Kerry Condon win. She crushed it in Banshees, and was in many ways the "anchor" of that movie that kept it grounded. And I think there will be enough big fans of Banshees to get her the win.

 

BEST DIRECTOR:

Should Win: Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

- A lot of people roll their eyes at the idea of Spielberg winning an Oscar in 2023. But the fact is, he has in fact been passed over many a time at these awards. And the fact also is: he deserves it for The Fabelmans. I mean, watch this movie, people. It's a smaller, more personal story - sure. But so many moments are directed with mind-blowing creativity, beauty, and elegance by Spielberg - helping to elevate the film to something truly special. There were so many moments in this film that filled me with awe at Spielberg's abilities behind the camera. I love The Daniels. But Fabelmans is a friggin' master class.

Will Win: The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

 - And again, I think momentum is simply on Everything Everywhere - and The Daniels' side. I don't begrudge it. These guys are truly original thinkers with incredibly creative minds. And them winning would be a real game-changer for the Oscars in many ways. So I'll be happy if they win. I can't wait to see what they do next.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Should Win: Tar

- The script for Tar took me down a strange, dark rabbit hole. I thought about the movie for days, weeks - after seeing it. This is some real genius level stuff, in my view. So it's my pick.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once

- But you also can't deny the way that the Everything Everywhere script mixes huge, mind-bending ideas with absurd comedy but also real humanity. It's something I aspire to in my own writing, and I 100% look to the Daniels as an inspiration. Again, I think momentum will be on their side.

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Should and Will Win: Women Talking

- I loved Women Talking and it's got one hell of a script. The dialogue crackles and hits hard. The movie has a nonstop intensity to it that's amazing considering its limited locations. This one will probably, sadly, not get the full level of Oscar love it deserves. But it should and will win here.

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

Should and Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

- Pinocchio was my easy pick here ... until I recently watched the surprisingly incredible Puss in Boots: The Last Wish. Still, Pinocchio feels like such a unique and special film - so artfully crafted, and so uniquely filled with that special brand of Guillermo Del Toro passion and visual splendor.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:

Should and Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

- It's an easy rule of thumb: when an international film is nominated in a bunch of other categories, it will win Best International Film at the Oscars. And so it goes with All Quiet. But I think the movie will win a lot of various awards this year, because it's a pretty great film and a really powerful one at that. Netflix's equally powerful promotional campaign probably doesn't hurt either.

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

Should and Will Win: Avatar: Way of the Water

- I was actually a bit torn on this one, because as crazy as Avatar 2's CG f/x are, part of me was more impressed with the more old-school wizardry of Top Gun Maverick. Still, I think the sheer amount of time, energy, money, and technology that went into Avatar will give it the win here. But you never know. I wouldn't count Maverick out.


BEST DOCUMENTARY:

- Should and Will Win: Navalny

 

BEST FILM EDITING:

- Should and Will Win: Top Gun Maverick

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
 

- Should and Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

- Should and Will Win: Babylon

BEST ANIMATED FILM SHORT:

- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:

- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: The Elephant Whisperer

 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:

- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: Le Pupill

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

- Should and Will Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:

- Should and Will Win: Elvis

 

BEST SOUND:

- Should and Will Win: Top Gun Maverick

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

- Should Win: TIE: Babylon and All Quiet on the Western Front

- Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

- Should and Will Win: “Naatu Naatu,” (RRR)

And ... there you have it. What do you think? We'll see how I do shortly. But like I said ... there are so many amazing films nominated this year ... I'll be happy with any number of winners.

Celebrate film!