OSCARS 2026 Thoughts and Predictions:
I've sort of come to hate the word "tribalism," because, lately, it gets thrown around in online discourse *a lot.* And even the criticism of tribalism seems, if anything, to simply help to feed the beast. But the world we live in today - one fueled by rage-bait social media posts, sharp political divides, and an overabundance of raw nerves - leads to a lot of tribalistic debate. And that, certainly, is true for this year's Oscars.
We've got Team Sinners, Team One Battle, Team Marty, Team Secret Agent, Team Bugonia ...
And the exuberance of those teams leads to inevitable backlash.
And so the Oscar race, more than ever, devolves into endless conversation loops that end up having very little to do with the movies themselves. It doesn't help that it happens to be a year where many of the big awards contenders were also pretty solid commercial successes. So you have a lot of people who don't necessarily watch a lot of movies suddenly acting the part of expert, because they happened to catch showings of Sinners, One Battle After Another, and Marty Supreme. Good for Oscar TV ratings, potentially. Toxic for the discourse.
The fact is, 2025 was another amazing year for movies - and it's a cinematic miracle that we got the three all-timer movies listed above - which should be celebrated in tandem rather than pitted against one another. If you can ignore the extracurricular conversation and focus on the movies themselves, I think most film fans will agree that these three movies were all pretty damn amazing. As were any number of other 2025 films - some nominated for Oscars, others not.
And to that point, as is
tradition ... here are my Top 10 OSCAR SNUBS for this year:
1.) No Other Choice for ... anything!
- It's truly puzzling that the great Park Chan-wook is continually ignored by the Oscars. He makes amazing film after amazing film, is widely recognized as one of our greatest living directors, and yet ... nothing. He directed an absolute banger this past year in No Other Choice. How was it so completely snubbed for Best Picture, Best International Feature, Best Directing, Best Lead Actor, etc?!
2.) Sorry, Baby for Best Original Screenplay
- Sorry, Baby was 2025's indie sensation. It was smart, funny, and a total breakout for writer/director/actor Eva Victor. And I understand that there's a lot of competition in a lot of categories this year. But if nothing else, this one should have been a shoe-in for screenplay.
3.) 28 Years Later for ... anything!
- Many were skeptical of 28 Years Later. How could it possibly live up to the classic 28 Days Later? How could director Danny Boyle and writer Alex Garland possibly recreate the magic of the original? Well, Boyle and Garland exceeded all expectations, and delivered a new horror classic. And in a year when the Oscars are honoring other great horror movies, 28 Years Later shoulda' been a contender!
4.) Amanda Seyfried for Best Actress for The Testament of Ann Lee
- The Testament of Ann Lee was one of the most force-of-nature films of 2025, a total tour de force. And yet, it was mostly snubbed by the Oscars. If anything, Amanda Seyfried should have been a shoe-in for a Best Lead Actress nom. Her performance here was remarkable.
5.) Joel Edgerton for Best Actor for Train Dreams
- Train Dreams got a Best Picture nomination, but the engine that powers the entire movie - Joel Edgerton's soulful, career-best lead performance - gets nada? Make it make sense.
6.) The Long Walk for Best Casting
- Despite it being a big year for Stephen King adaptations, the Oscars totally overlooked two of the best King adaptations ever this year (I'll get to the second one in a minute). But The Long Walk is the kind of movie that was made for the new Casting category. It features a murderer's row of bright young talent, like Cooper Hoffman and David Jonsson, doing their best work ever.
7.) The Life of Chuck for Best Picture
8.) Odessa A'zion for Best Supporting Actress for Marty Supreme
9.) Nina Hoss for Best Supporting Actress for Hedda
10.) Superman for Best Visual F/X
- Superman was so nice that I saw it in theaters twice. It's one of my favorite films of 2025, and it seemed a bit weird that it was snubbed so hard at the Oscars. Really? We're going to hand out noms to the likes of The Joker, but snub Superman? Even for Visual F/X?! Superman gave us one of the year's most beloved CGI sidekicks in the form of Krypto. And it looked awesome top to bottom. And sidenote: The Mighty Crabjoys were totally snubbed too for Best Original Song!
BEST PICTURE:
Should Win: Marty Supreme
- Look, Marty Supreme was my pick for Best Movie of 2025. And I get it, for a variety of reasons it never truly seemed in contention for Best Picture at this year's Oscars. But man, as much as I loved Sinners and One Battle, Marty was the movie that really, really moved me. I was mesmerized and energized by the film - and it delivered an epic intensity not seen since the Safdies previously wowed me with Uncut Gems. It's an instant classic.
Will Win: One Battle After Another
- But, I think it's a two-horse race between Sinners and One Battle After Another to win the big one. And I give the slight edge to One Battle. Because One Battle has an air of PTA prestige, whereas Sinner, as great as it is, is still a vampire action-horror movie. And I know the Oscars have become a bit more open-minded to this sort of thing, but Sinners still feels like a slight stretch given its deep genre roots. One Battle may not be PTA's actual best film, but it's a great one and I think this is going to be his year.
BEST ACTOR:
Should and Will Win: Timothee Chalomet (Marty Supreme)
- A few months ago, I would have said Chalomet was an absolute lock. But of course, there's now been ... discourse ... around Chalomet's various not-so-well-received comments from various speeches and interviews and such. But I still think most people really like Chalomet, and I still think a lot of people felt he was snubbed last year for A Complete Unknown. But his performance in Marty Supreme is at a whole other level, and for me, it's an all-timer. Chalomet is still young, but I think his performance as Marty will go down as one of the greats. I mean, it's incredible. He deserves this one. Michael B. Jordan is the one who could win it instead. I wouldn't be mad. Jordan is great in Sinners. Wagner Moura has an outside shot too for Secret Agent. And Ethan Hawke is SO good in Blue Moon - it'd be hard to begrudge him a win. But I've still got to believe that this is Timmy's year.
BEST ACTRESS:
Should and Will Win: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
- I think this one is pretty much a done deal. Personally, I've made it very clear that I am all in on the Jessie Buckley bandwagon. I think she's the greatest actress of her generation, and is capable of taking things to a level that few others can. She is a force in Hamnet, and delivers a singular performance - ethereal, powerful, devastating. It feels like her time to be finally be anointed as the best in the world. Next in line would be Rose Byrne, who is fantastic in If I Had Legs I'd Kick You. That too is an all-timer performance, and I gave her my top spot in my personal Best of 2025 list. I loved Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue as well, and I know people love her - but I'm guessing the nomination is the win there. I've still got to give the edge to Buckley.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Should and Will Win: Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
- This is maybe the most up-for-grabs major category of the night. Personally I'm a bit torn. For my own pick, it's a toss-up between Skarsgård and Sean Penn for One Battle After Another. Penn gives an instantly iconic performance as the film's villain, and after seeing One Battle in the theater I thought he was a lock. But in Sentimental Value, Skarsgård gives a performance that feels like a high point in a legendary career. And in many ways, he's actually the main character of that film - or at least the character around which everything else revolves. It's a somewhat quiet / non-showy performance, but it's an extremely powerful one - with so many layers and so much shown but not said. I think voters will want to honor Skarsgård for this film as well as for his body of work as a whole. But ... there are so many potential spoilers. Penn is a personal pick, but I'm not sure if he's a favorite of a lot of voters for various reasons. Benicio Del Toro could take it - people LOVE his character from One Battle, one that's spawned many a meme. And as much as the Academy may be inclined to honor the body of work of Skarsgård, what about the body of work of the great Delroy Lindo? His part in Sinners is small-ish but memorable, and he was notoriously snubbed a few years ago for his leading turn in Da 5 Bloods. There's a lot of possibilities here. But I still say Skarsgård is the safest bet, and a way to honor a wonderful film in Sentimental Value that might go otherwise unrewarded.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Should and Will Win: Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
- I think this one comes down to Taylor for One Battle vs. Amy Madigan for Weapons. And it's tough to predict which of them will win here. Madigan seems to be the favorite in many ways - she was the breakout character in Weapons, and that character went on to become a bit of a pop-culture sensation. But, I sort of wonder if this is another "the nomination is the win" situation. Weapons is awesome, but it's a pretty strange horror movie that is not at all a typical Oscar-y sort of film. I still am skeptical of just how open-minded Academy members truly are to audience-friendly horror. On the flipside, people seem to have mixed opinions about Taylor's character in One Battle - but Taylor herself is having a moment. She hosted SNL, and has been everywhere and anywhere this awards season. I think she's an amazing actress. She really impressed me in the underseen/underrated A Thousand And One, and she's dynamite in One Battle. So I am going slightly against the grain here and betting she ends up with the Oscar.
BEST CASTING:
Should and Will Win: Sinners
- This one is 100% a lock. Bet on it. And I think it's for good reason. Sinners has a perfect blend of actors in its ensemble - from veterans like Delroy Lindo, to stars like Michael B. Jordan, to complete unknowns like Miles Caton, who kills it in a truly breakout role. Every role is cast to perfection. Jack O'Connell - a new favorite actor. Wunmi Mosaku - crushes it. Hailee Steinfeld - never been better. And that amazing cameo from Buddy Guy is the cherry on top. Marty Supreme has a similarly eclectic cast, but Sinners is the ensemble to beat.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Should Win: Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)
- There are obviously some heavy hitters in this category, but for me, Marty Supreme is the best directed movie of 2025. In some ways it reminds me of what Sean Baker did last year with Anora. Marty just has an energy, a vitality, an intensity unlike any other film in recent memory. I was on the edge of my seat the entire movie, and watching the film was a truly visceral experience. Josh Safdie is ridiculously talented. He's my pick here.
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
- That said, it speaks volumes that One Battle Another may not even be a Top 5 PTA film, and yet it's still one of the most incredibly directed films I've ever seen. There are numerous sequences in this movie that are quite simply a master class. And that's because PTA is one of the greats. Let's face it, if There Will Be Blood had come out any other year rather than 2007, it would have swept the Oscars and won Best Director and Best Picture. But 2007 saw a few of the greatest films of all time release, and PTA lost out to the Coen Bros and No Country For Old Men. But as many have said, this will be his The Departed - maybe not his absolute best film, but a great one that feels like the right moment to finally give the legend his due. And yes, Ryan Coogler also directed the heck out of Sinners. But Sinners is only his second non-franchise film, and Coogler will have many great movies to come. I think One Battle and PTA are deserving of this win.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Should and Will Win: Sinners
-
I recently re-watched Sinners, and as I took in a lot of the small details I missed the first time around, it was increasingly clear to me that this one was a total shoe-in for Best Original Screenplay. Ryan Coogler writes a script that delivers both one hell of a genre film, but also a lot more. There's a thematic depth here that is undeniable. The movie gets all the nuts and bolts of great genre writing down perfectly. But it also adds so much to that in a way that makes the story transcend genre. But this isn't homework. It's an extremely entertaining, badass yarn with dialogue that sings and characters that stick.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Should and Will Win: One Battle After Another
- See above! Paul Thomas Anderson takes Thomas Pynchon’s 1990 novel, Vineland, and makes a meal out of it here. He brings to life an ensemble of memorable, instantly iconic characters. He crafts dialogue that's memorable and funny and snappy and smart. He builds tension wonderfully. This is crackling stuff. PTA, congrats on your first Oscar win with this one - it's about time.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Should Win: Zootopia 2
- Despite being an absolute box office juggernaut, somehow Zootopia 2 actually feels severely underrated this Oscar season. I mean, for me, the movie was a genuine "A." And I did not expect that at all going in, as I was lukewarm on the original movie. But this one really over-delivered, and to me it's easily the best animated film of 2025.
Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters
- But, as much dough as Zootopia 2 made, KPop Demon Hunters was THE undisputed king of pop-culture in 2025. It was a smash, a phenomenon, and the most-watched original movie in Netflix history. Too big to fail doesn't usually apply to the Oscars (this ain't the Grammys!), but ... I think this is probably an exception. Voters with kids likely had "Golden" blasted on repeat 24/7 in their households, and they must vote to validate the sheer proliferation of this film into our daily lives. And by the way, I really liked this movie. I'm not against it winning. And a win for this one is a win for originality, for diversity, and for risk-taking. Which I am very much for.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:
Should Win: Sentimental Value
- This one is slightly tough to predict, since both Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent are also nominated for Best Picture. Of the two, I'm more a fan of Sentimental Value. While there were moments I loved in The Secret Agent, as a whole not all of it worked for me. But Sentimental Value really struck a chord, and it's a movie I continually thought about for weeks after seeing it. I think it's a quietly powerful and poignant story, and I thought the cast was top-to-bottom amazing.
Will Win: The Secret Agent
- So I think Sentimental Value is still the favorite here by a hair, but I don't know ... I also have a hard time betting against The Secret Agent. Since Wagner Moura is a longshot to win Best Actor, I have a feeling that a lot of voters may go hard on voting for The Secret Agent in this category to get a big win for the film. We know that Brazil goes absolutely nuts for its homegrown movies, so that contingent of voters will certainly be strong. It could go either way, but I think if The Secret Agent has any chance for a win, it's here.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Should and Will Win: F1
- This category is really odd this year, with a lot of big blockbusters like Superman and Predator: Badlands and even Wicked For Good left out. Avatar might be considered a front-runner, but I wonder if the generally cold reception to the third film hurts it. For me, as groundbreaking as the visuals in all the Avatar movies are, Fire and Ash was so visually similar to Way of the Water that it just didn't hit me the same way. Plus, the insistence on showing the movie theatrically in high frame rate totally killed a lot of the movie's visual impact, in my view. So I've got to go with F1 here, which is also, somewhat shockingly, also a Best Picture nomination. I was mixed on the movie, but enjoyed it overall and it certainly had some killer visuals that put you right on the race-track. Director Joseph Kasinski always delivers eye-popping F/X (see also: Tron Legacy, Top Gun Maverick). So I'm going with F1 here.
BEST DOCUMENTARY:
- Should and Will Win: Mr. Nobody Against Putin
- Unfortunately, I haven't seen enough of this year's nominees here to make a super-educated prediction. I know the docs on Netflix tend to win out lately, given their wide visibility. But, I'll slightly go out on a limb here and predict a win for Mr. Nobody Against Putin - a timely doc that depicts rebellion in Russia. Given our current political climate, I could see this one jumping out to voters as one to make time to watch.
BEST EDITING:
Should Win: Marty Supreme
- Again, the hyper-intense, hyper-stylized, incredibly immersive Marty Supreme would be my pick here. I loved the way the scenes flowed, the way needle drops were used to create immaculate vibes, the way that the film completely enveloped you ...
Will Win: One Battle After Another
- ... But I think One Battle After Another will take the prize here. Because the movie really does just feel incredibly well put together in every respect, and there are a number of scenes that really pop thanks to artful editing choices.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Should and Will Win: Train Dreams
- Predicting a rare non/Sinners, non-One Battle win here for Train Dreams - which features a lot of pretty amazing cinematography ... gorgeously depicting the American frontier in a way that made me wish I could have seen this one in a theater in Dolby or IMAX.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Should and Will Win: Frankenstein
- Guillermo Del Toro's Frankenstein is one of this year's "happy to be there" films, with a lot of nominations but not a lot of real shots at winning. That said, if it's got a shot, it's got to be here. The movie looks like a Bernie Wrightson drawing come to life (which was literally Del Toro's intention), and it's got some incredible-looking sets. Rooting for a Frankenstein win here!
BEST ANIMATED FILM SHORT:
Should and Will Win: Butterfly
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
Should Win: ???
Will Win: All the Empty Rooms
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:
Should Win: ???
Will Win: Friend of Dorothy
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Should Win: Frankenstein
Will Win: Sinners
- I sense a Sinners win here, but I feel like Frankenstein just looks so great from a costuming perspective. The looks in this movie are pure, gothic greatness. But hey, Sinners has a lot of great costuming as well, and it's clear a lot of thought and care went into those wardrobe choices.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
Should and Will Win: Frankenstein
- But I do think Frankenstein has got to win this one. The look of The Monster alone is awards-worthy.
BEST SOUND:
Should and Will Win: Sirat
- I actually have not yet seen Sirat, but I've heard that sound is a crucial part of the film and I've heard some very enthusiastic endorsements that this would be a justified win for the film. F1 is a favorite given the F1 of it all. But I'll go out on a slight limb here.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
- Should and Will Win: Sinners
- Upon re-watching Sinners, it struck me that the movie's score seriously rips. Ludwig Göransson knocks it out of the park, matching the movie's ominous vampire-horror vibes with a score that takes you deep into the darkness with style and intensity.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
- Should and Will Win: “Golden" (KPop Demon Hunters)
- And here it is, the #1 most sure-thing of this year's Oscars. Put your money down. This one is golden. It's the smash-hit song of the year, the ear-worm that you can't help but bop to, the guaranteed winner at this year's Oscars. Sorry, Dianne Warren. Maybe next year.
This is going to be an interesting Oscars. A number of unpredictable categories, some real heavy-hitters going toe-to-toe, and a lot of great movies competing for the top prizes. Like I said, I hope that people realize that just about all of these films are more than awards-worthy. So let's keep the discourse civil and polite, people. At the end of the day, it's all about celebrating movies. 2025 was a fantastic year for film, and 2026 is off to a hot early start. Already this year, we've gotten amazing movies like 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple, Send Help, Nirvanna: The Band - The Show - The Movie, and more.
And hey, bonus, Conan is hosting this year's show once again. Thank the movie gods. We need this.
