OSCAR 2014 - Pre-Show Thoughts & Predictions & Rants

 Let's do this.

That's right, I'm back. It's been a while, but hey, it's almost Oscar time and I had to make the effort to put down my thoughts and predictions.

Here's the thing: as I've said, 2013 was an insanely good year for movies. So while, sure, there are films that I was upset to see snubbed at this year's Oscars, it's also pretty hard to take issue with the ones that did make the cut. I mean: 12 Years a Slave? Gravity? Nebraska? The Wolf of Wall Street? Her? Captain Philips? These were all instant classics that deserve whatever recognition they get. In fact, I'd be more than happy if any of those four films took home Best Picture. Even Dallas Buyers Club and American Hustle - I'd put those two a rung below the others I just mentioned, and yet, both have individual performances that were among the year's best.

Before I get into my picks, here are some of the biggest snubs in my view:


2014 OSCARS - THE BIGGEST SNUBS:

1.) Tom Hanks in Captain Phillips: look, I am the last person who likes seeing the same people nominated over and over. But Hanks may have literally done the best work of his storied career in this movie. Those last five minutes? Holy crap on a stick. I had chills.

2.) Inside Llewyn Davis: This should have been nominated for Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay. The Coen Bros must not be taken for granted, people. This is a fantastic film that will be more and more highly regarded as the years go on.

3.) Brie Larson / Short Term 12: Short Term 12 was an incredible indie flick that deserved more buzz than it got. But one undeniable highlight was the soul-searing performance of Brie Larson in the lead role. Some of the most real, raw, affecting acting I've seen.

4.) Michael B. Jordan / Fruitvale Station: Here's another breakout performance that really should have been recognized. Jordan is insanely good in Fruitvale Station, and the movie itself is an absolutely huge directorial debut for Ryan Coogler, who is going to be very big very soon.

5.) Daniel Bruhl / Rush - Rush was one of Ron Howard's best films in years, but the highlight was Daniel Bruhl, who absolutely kills as race car driver Nikki Lauda. Bruhl got a Golden Globe nom, and he should have gotten an Oscar nomination as well.

6.) Frances Ha - Noah Baumbach's best movie yet - a new-school spin on Woody Allen urban coming-of-age comedy that also served as the final piece in the puzzle that is Greta Gerwig as star-on-the-rise.

7.) The World's End - Okay, so there wasn't a snowball's chance in hell that Edgar Wright's latest would receive an Oscar nom. But why? It's funny, smart, and moving. Wright directs the hell out of it. It might be his best movie yet, and he's made some damn good films. It makes me sad that we live in a world where Wright's films are not considered best-in-class by the cinematic establishment.

8.) Stoker - Too weird for the Oscars? Probably. But Chan Wook Park's American cinematic debut is right up there with Oldboy as a spellbinding psychological thriller that sticks with you and enters the inner sanctum of your mind long after the closing credits role. And some of the acting in the film - from Mia Wasikowska and Nicole Kidman in particular - is aces.

9.) Pacific Rim - So ... wait. How is this not even nominated for best Visual Effects? Pac Rim was far and away the coolest film, visually, in 2013 not named Gravity. Show Guillermo Del Toro some love.

10.) The Way Way Back - Snubbed on multiple levels. Sam Rockwell was fantastic in this, and deserving of a dark horse Best Supporting Actor nom. Toni Collette was similarly great. The screenplay was excellent. Where was the love for this film?

And yet ... like I said, so many great films and talents *were* nominated that it's hard to be all that upset. At least this year. Next year I'll probably be back with extra Oscar-hatin'.


2014 OSCAR PICKS AND PREDICTIONS:

BEST PICTURE:

Should Win: Tie: Gravity, 12 Years a Slave, Her, Nebraska, or The Wolf of Wall Street.

- Like I said, all four of these films were instant classics, in my mind. Gravity was my personal favorite film of the year. 12 Years a Slave had one or two minute flaws, but had moments so powerful - and an important story so well-told - that I sort of see it as most deserving of an award. Her was maybe the most of-our-time, uber-relevant movie of 2013. In another year, it might have been a favorite. Nebraska was, to me, a stunner - Alexander Payne's best yet - funny, visually-striking, and packing one hell of an emotional punch. And Wolf of Wall Street - it was just classic Scorsese. It was balls-to-the-wall awesome, and easily up there with his last Oscar-winning effort The Departed. So yeah, I wouldn't mind if any of these four movies took home the gold.

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave

- I think it will be close. But 12 Years feels like the "important" film that deserves to be recognized. If it wasn't so good, I might take issue. But the film is a friggin' masterpiece, so I'll be supportive if it wins.

BEST ACTOR:

Should Win: Tie: Matthew McConaughey, Leonardo DiCaprio, Chiwetel Ejiofor

- This is another loaded category, even without Tom Hanks. All three of the above performances though are pretty next-level, career-best work. McConaughey is just on a tear. In Dallas Buyer's Club he goes full-method, and it's the best work he's ever done. Similarly, DiCaprio is off-the-chain good in Wolf of Wall Street - it's his best-ever work. Eljiofor is doing a big, Shakespearian performance in 12 Years a Slave. But man, the way he conveys emotion with just his eyes, the way he shows you inward rage matched with outward restraint - it's amazing stuff. All three of these guys should co-win.

Will Win: Matthew McConaughey

- 2013 was the Year of McConaughey. Alright? Alright alright alriiiight. The dude has so much goodwill built up between Dallas Buyer's Club, Mud (underrated), Wolf of Wall Street (best cameo role since Alec Baldwin in Glengary Glenross), and now True Detective (incredible). The momentum is too strong. Just go with it, alright?

BEST ACTRESS:

Should Win: Cate Blanchett

- Blanchett was a tour de force in Blue Jasmine. Woody controversy aside, you can't take that away from her. This was a career-highlight turn. I also like Sandra Bullock a lot in Gravity, though the performance is so much about the physical that it seems less substantive somehow than Blanchett's. Amy Adams was also pretty incredible in American Hustle. If anyone deserves to win for that film, I think it's her.

Will Win: Cate Blanchett

- The Woody Allen factor could hurt her, but it could also rally people to her side. Regardless, I think hers was the best and most impressive performance by a pretty decent margin, so ultimately that should win out.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Should Win: Jared Leto

- The only other guy I'd consider in the running is Michael Fassbender, who was phenomenal in 12 Years a Slave. But Leto is the clear favorite. He is heartbreaking in Dallas Buyer's Club.

Will Win: Guys, this is perhaps one of the few sure-things of this year's Oscars. Leto is a lock.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Should Win: June Squibb

- Personally, I absolutely loved Squibb in Nebraska. Hers is the big, bring-the-house-down role, and I loved her in the film. It's not every day that an elderly woman makes you stand up and cheer in a movie. Squibb did, and to me, she deserves a win.

Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o

- It feels like the momentum is in Nyong'o's favor. And she's great in 12 Years a Slave. I guess my only reservation is that her character is perhaps a bit less memorable than the suffering she endures. But still, the Oscars love a good breakout story, and Nyong'o certainly is one.

BEST DIRECTOR:

Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron

- This is another insanely loaded category. I'm not sure I would have given David O. Russell a nod here (I'd give it to the Coen Bros., Spike Jonze, or Paul Greengrass). But the other four guys - Cuaron, Scorsese, McQueen, and Payne - all did absolutely we're-not-worthy work on their latest films. This one hurts. Because I think years from now, Wall St. will be thought of as a total Scorsese classic. And McQueen is just getting started, but what he did with 12 Years is amazing. We've seen the straight-up melodrama version of this story before, but McQueen gave us the art-film, Lynchian, surreal nightmare version. This guy is the real deal. That said ... Cuaron did stuff in Gravity that was just mind-boggling. The imagination and vision needed to conceive what he conceived ... it's beyond the capabilities of us mere mortals. Cuaron is my pick.

Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron

- For all the reasons I mentioned above, I think Cuaron is the favorite. I could see a similar trajectory to the Golden Globes, in which Cuaron takes home the Director prize while Gravity ultimately loses out to 12 Years a Slave for Best Picture.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Should Win: Tie: Her and Nebraska

- I loved both of these screenplays. Her just created this amazingly fleshed-out future world, while at the same time imbuing what could have been a gimmicky story with real heart and feeling. At the same time, Nebraska was just a whip-crack funny yet gut-punch moving story that was quiet, yet spoke volumes, all at once.

Will Win: Her

- I think this may be one of the token wins for Her. I'm not sure though, this one's a touch call. I could see American Hustle taking it. But I think voters will recognize Her not just for its merits but for the clear autobiographical element that Jonze put into it.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Should Win: Wolf of Wall Street

- This is a flipping phenomenal screenplay. The kind that will be quoted by movie geeks for decades. Terrence Winter has done wonders over the years on Boardwalk Empire, but this is a crowning achievement. I mean, holy crap, McConaughey's speech to DiCaprio alone is pure gold.

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave

- This one is super tough to call. John Ridley is a well-regarded writer and there's some very good writing in 12 Years a Slave. I think Wolf of Wall Street could pull it out, but perhaps the (ridiculous) semi-controversy over the movie's morals could hurt it. If I had to wager, I'd guess 12 Years. But would not be upset if Wall Street pulled an upset.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

Should Win: The Croods / The Wind Rises

- Caveat: I have not yet seen The Wind Rises. But it's probably amazing and deserving of a win, as let's face it - Miyazaki is a living legend and just about everything he does is genius. That said, Dreamworks' latest has probably zero chance of winning, but dammit all, I really dug The Croods. I was a fan of Frozen as well, but The Croods to me was the more involving, more fully-realized film.

Will Win: Frozen

- Everyone seemingly loves Frozen among the rank-and-file population. And every Academy voter with kids has probably seen it a million times by now It's a juggernaut - likely an unstoppable one. While there's a chance that the great Miyazaki's purportedly final film - The Wind Rises - will take home what is probably its rightful award, I won't underestimate the hypnotic power of "Let It Go" and the movie that surrounds it.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

Should Win: Gravity

- Seemless CGI, eye-popping IMAX 3D, incredible integration of live-action actors with computer-generated sets. Yeah, this one is a futureshock to the system, and yeah, it should win.

Will Win: Gravity:

- It should win, and it will. Sorry Lone Ranger.

BEST FILM EDITING:

Should Win: Captain Phillips
Will Win: Captain Phillips

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Should Win: Gravity (though Nebraska is up there as well)
Will Win: Gravity

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

Should Win: American Hustle
Will Win: American Hustle

BEST DOCUMENTARY:

Should Win: ???

- Okay, I am woefully behind in my documentary viewing. But I've heard so many good things about the film The Act of Killing. It's on my list. It seems like the sort of must-watch, eye-opening doc that is indeed award-worthy.

Will Win: The Act of Killing

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

Should Win: Gravity

- I loved the score of Gravity. Made the film that much more immersive and intense.

Will Win: Gravity

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

Should Win: "Let It Go"
Will Win: "Let It Go"

- Did you not read what I wrote above about Frozen. It's a big Disneyfied juggernaut at this point and Let It Go is a big reason why. To be fair, it's a great pop-song, one of the most catchy and most memorable that a Disney animated feature has produced in years.

BEST SOUND MIXING:

Should Win: Gravity
Will Win: Gravity

BEST SOUND EDITING:

Should Win: Gravity
Will Win: Gravity

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:

Should Win: ???

- What the ...? The nominees in this category are horrendous. At least throw The Hobbit a bone here ... The Lone Ranger? Bad Grandpa? Ugh.

Will Win: I guess Dallas Buyer's Club because of Jared Leto?

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

Should Win: ???

- Okay, I'm also severely lagging in my recent viewing of Oscar-nominated foreign films. I don't know, I guess none of this year's crop really grabbed my interest. I've heard amazing things about Omar, but I'm curious to see it so as to better understand its politics.

Will Win: The Broken Circle Breakdown

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:

Should Win: ?
Will Win: Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

BEST ANIMATED SHORT:

Should Win: ?
Will Win: Room on the Broom

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:

Should Win: ?
Will Win: The Voorman Problem


And there you go. The bottom line: 2013 was one hell of a year for films. So forget about red carpets and Hollywood politics, and instead celebrate movies that kick-ass, expand the imagination, open eyes, and make you think.

12 YEARS A SLAVE Is Brilliant and Poetic Depiction of the American Nightmare

 12 YEARS A SLAVE Review:

- 12 YEARS A SLAVE is such a unique, in some ways unusual film, that I honestly wasn't sure what to make of it, exactly, upon leaving the theater. This sprawling tale of American Slavery doesn't feel at all like what we've come to expect from films dealing with this era or with this narrative. Director Steve McQueen includes absolutely no flourishes of Spielbergian grandiosity in his film. Instead, he uses long, unwavering takes to create a film filled with artfully-depicted brutality, and positively overflowing with a feeling of overpowering, existential dread. The mix of unfiltered ugliness mixed with lyrical, poetic storytelling (and some sprinkling of gallows humor - both literal and figurative) creates a movie that plays out like a waking nightmare for its protagonist, the sold-into-slavery Solomon Northup. The result is a film that's utterly engrossing and endlessly praise-worthy. This is a film that has literary depth and subtext, but that also crackles with memorable visuals and cinematic sweep.

Solomon is played by Chiwetel Ejiofor, and it's a career-making performance. Ejiofor brings a soulful, restrained dignity to the character that I don't think I fully appreciated until late in the film. I describe the performance in these terms because Solomon starts the movie as a free, educated black man - a man who enjoys a relatively decent and undeniably joyful life - with a loving wife, two young children, and respected in his upstate New York town as a knowledgeable and trustworthy builder. However, it's his hobby that gets him into trouble - his skill as a fiddle-player attracts the attention of two traveling entertainers who convince Solomon to accompany them for a few of their shows. When Solomon is deceived by the musicians, he suddenly wakes up in a dark prison, having been abducted, taken down south, and sold into slavery. And from that point on, he has to hide who he really is. Because all the things that helped him get ahead up North - his smarts, his eloquence, his education - are liabilities as a slave. In order to survive, he has to show restraint, hide his thoughts, hide his intellect, hide his rage. And that is what makes Ejiofor's performance so remarkable. We see hints of what's going on in his head - in Solomon's eyes. But only rarely is he free to say what he really thinks. The dichotomy between who Solomon was and who he is forced to become is absolutely jarring. Because the white slave owners view him as lesser, animalistic, primitive - so too is this how he must act. And Ejiofor pulls off this tricky balance - this performance full of subtle expressions and telling glances - with aplomb. His Solomon never fully loses his dignity or his almost regal-like aura of calm and wisdom. But it's not for lack of trying on the part of the slave-owners who want to strip him of his humanity. What's remarkable about the film is the push and pull in that dynamic. Despite all efforts to break Solomon, to make him the prototypical, subservient slave - it's just impossible. The guy is too smart, too resourceful, too full of life for that sort of reductive psychology to fully take hold.

As good as Ejiofor is, he's surrounded by a remarkable supporting cast that is filled with equally award-worthy performances. There's two additional turns that really stand out to me though. One is Michael Fassbender as slave-owner Edwin Epps. Epps is the second slave-owner that Solomon is sold to (following a stint with the kinder and more sympathetic Ford, played by Benedict Cumberbatch), and he's a monster. The violence and rage he directs at his slaves is indicative of deep-seated psychological issues. Further complicating Epp's mania is his lustful obsession with one of the female slaves, Patsey. Epps puts Patsey on a pedestal, routinely praising her as his best worker in the fields. He also routinely rapes her, sapping her soul and demoralizing her to the point where she is hopeless and suicidal. Epps' disturbing relationship with Patsey drives his wife (a great turn from Sarah Paulson) off the wall, and Patsey and the other slaves find themselves caught in the volatile couple's tumultuous relationship. Fassbender is riveting as Epps though. He's a thoroughly despicable villain, but also a deeply complex character - a strange brew of madness and rage. But he is also emblematic of the disease of the mind that permeated throughout the antebellum south. How was it, we wonder, that so many could condone slavery, or even sadistically take pleasure in it? Epps', as a psychological profile, is case in point. Fassbender does wonders with the character - scary yet fascinating.

That leads me to Lupita Nyong'o as Patsey. Similar to Solomon, she must outwardly seem subservient and appreciative of her masters. But in Patsey's eyes, we see the bubbling sadness and hopelessness. We see the remnants of youth and girlhood, which we see all but stripped away by Epps. And when Patsey is pushed to limit, when she can take no more, Nyong'o turns in a gripping, jaw-dropping performance when she, as Patsey, lets the emotions flow freely in a rare moment of open expression. She and Solomon are two sides of the same coin. Solomon's lived the life of a free man, and so knows what it is that he lost as a slave. Patsey has known nothing but slavery, and can't even fathom what life outside of it is like. Suffice it to say, Nyong'o makes Patsey into the film's unlikely star - a supporting character whose horrifying treatment under Epps shows slavery at its worst and most soul-crushing.

So many other great little performances are scattered throughout the film. I mentioned Cumberbatch and Paulson, who are both excellent. Paul Giamatti shows up briefly but memorably as a sleazy slave-trader. The great Michael K. Williams, of The Wire and Boardwalk Empire, also makes a brief but badass cameo. Another small but crucial role is played by Garret Dillahunt (whose presence reinforces my perception that the film actually has a lot of stylistic and thematic similarities to the HBO series Deadwood). Dillahunt does here what he does best - he plays a slightly crazy and unhinged guy who Solomon takes a big risk in trusting. Alfre Woodard is another iconic actress who shows up for a small but vital role, playing a favored slave who has grown quite comfortable with her status. Now, I've heard some criticism of Bradd Pitt's role as a Canadian journeyman who provides a crucial bit of help to Solomon. I thought that Pitt's freewheeling persona proved a good fit for the part, and he provides a crucial counterpoint to characters like Epps. Pitt's puzzlement at slavery helps to paint the obsession that men like Epps have with it as a sort of infectious disease that had taken root in the minds of the antebellum south. At the same time, what seems like simple sanity to us now was, in that time and place, the very definition of radical and subversive thought. Finally, I've got to mention Paul Dano. Dano is just the best at playing loathsome, weaselly characters who very much deserve the punch-to-the-face that they inevitably receive. He's played that sort of character a lot, but this might be his best overall variation on that theme since There Will Be Blood.

Thinking about Dano's character, and Fassbender's, and other aspects of the film ... there is something slightly, undeniably pulpy about 12 YEARS A SLAVE. I keep mentioning this when I hear people say they're not sure they can stomach the film. It is violent, it is brutal, and it is at times disturbing. But to McQueen's credit, it's also an incredibly entertaining film. That takes nothing away from the seriousness of the subject matter, or the emotional weight of the movie. But McQueen also doesn't shy away from giving his film style and atmosphere, and even a bit of over-the-topness. I'll say that the movie's best scene is a weird mix of darkly funny and oddly disturbing. In the scene, Solomon is all but left for dead, set to be hung, before the men doing the hanging are stopped before Solomon can be fully strung up. And so Solomon is left with his toes just barely touching the ground, straining to keep himself from strangling to death. Solomon is gasping, panting, flailing. And all around him - as McQueen keeps his camera still and centered - we see others, black and white, simply going about their business - paying absolutely no attention to the guy right there, in front of them, on the very precipice of life and death. It's a scene that goes from scary to funny to scary again, and it's a weird Twilight Zone moment that, in its own way, completely summarizes the entire movie in miniature. Because yes, this is Solomon's story, but it's also the story of a supposedly civilized nation that had become a country of brainwashed zombies, stuck in a purgatory-like state in which, somehow, this sort of atrocity wasn't worth batting an eye over.

And so the film does have that pulpy aspect, that dark humor,  and that slightly skewed aesthetic that makes it more than your typical Hollywood-ized history lesson. There are a lot of layers here. And McQueen proves himself, above all else, a great storyteller - not telling his narrative in a completely linear or traditional sense, but in a way that's incredibly gripping, yet different from what one might expect from this sort of story. He doesn't talk down to the audience, or oversimplify things. He uses flashbacks and flash-forwards to create a sense of disorientation, to reinforce that nightmare feeling. He uses long takes many times - fixing his camera's lens on nature, on faces, on images - to make us pay attention to detail, focus on juxtaposition, and soak in the emotion of a moment.

I also think that John Ridley's screenplay is worth mentioning. Ridley also wrote Red Tails - a movie that is full on pulp (whereas 12 Years A Slave is only pulp-tinged, I'd say), but also one that I don't think really telegraphed Ridley's full potential. I mentioned the comparison to TV's Deadwood earlier, and that comparison comes to mind when I think of this film's colorful dialogue - a sort of formal prose that lends a certain gravitas to the words that are spoken. The mix of poetry and vulgarity, formality and brutality, is in keeping with the weird dichotomies of the movie's setting.

The whole film, in fact, is one of dichotomies. Its central story is that of a worldly and well-regarded man suddenly plunged into a hellish life of slavery, in which it is assumed that he is sub-human. In this world of degradation and humiliation, Solomon is surrounded by brutal men who also regard themselves as god-fearing Southern Gentlemen. And then there's the absurdity that always strikes me with stories about slavery - the fact that the slaves that were so looked down upon were, despite that, so ever-present and such a constant and integral part of their owner's lives.

12 YEARS A SLAVE does not fit the template of what a big Hollywood Oscar-bait movie is supposed to be, and I think that's what makes it so great. This is a film that's genuinely challenging and thought-provoking. At times, I'd even call it an art-film in certain respects for the non-traditional ways that some of its key scenes unfold. At other times, I agree with the sentiment that it plays out almost like a horror film or a Twilight Zone episode - with an ordinary man suddenly thrust into a nightmare scenario that completely turns his world upside down. There's that noir-ish feeling of fate conspiring against him, of being trapped in a dark void from which escape is a near-impossibility. But when you couple that creepy vibe with the fact that this is real history - an adaptation of a real person's autobiography - there is, again, that dichotomy: of real-life-meets-unreality. Life as waking nightmare. A warped, backwards version of the American Dream in which, instead of upward mobility, a man is dragged from the middle class all the way down to the bottom, made a slave, forced to endure hell, as part of some mass delusion about skin color determining one's worth as a human being. 12 YEARS A SLAVE doesn't give you that swell of emotion and triumph when it ends. It's not a crowd-pleaser that sends you home happy, or in tears for that matter. No, the feeling you get at the end of this film is one of waking up from a strange dream. A dream that you pinch yourself to make sure that, yes, it was, in fact, only a dream. But here's the brilliance of the movie - this wasn't just a dream. This happened. That took a while to register with me. It took a few days for the full achievement of this film to fully sink in. But now, I can look back and recognize the unique brilliance at play here, and I can heartily recommend this film as one of the true must-see movies of 2013.

My Grade: A