OSCARS 2021 - Pre-Show Thoughts & Predictions

OSCARS 2021 Thoughts and Predictions:

- To paraphrase Hollywood's highest-paid actor, The Rock: FINALLY ... it's time for the Oscars. This year's awards season comes at the tail end of what's been an insane year. Obviously, in general, everything since last March has just been crazy. But for movies, man, it's been a wild ride. As the pandemic began to spread early last year, theaters quickly shut down and countless movie release dates were delayed. Many movies skipped theaters and became available for digital rental or streaming. And the Oscars were pushed back from their usual February timing to late April - with films that only experienced a real release in January, February, or even March still eligible for this year's awards. For someone like me who tends to be a bit obsessive about watching and ranking each year's best movies, having to wait until 2021 to watch some of 2020's most-buzzed-about movies - like Nomadland, Minari, The Father, and Judas and the Black Messiah - was a bit frustrating. At the same time, thinking back to the before-times when I saw early 2020 movies like Emma or The Invisible Man - that I actually saw in theaters! - feels like a lifetime ago. 

But here's the thing: when you factor in all the Oscar-eligible movies from 2020 and early 2021 ... this year's Oscars are actually *loaded* with great films. I don't know that the Best Picture category, for example, has been this stacked with truly A-level films in quite some time. Are there some slightly "less-than" movies that snuck in here and there across the various categories? Sure. But there are also so many great films in the mix.

 

I would 100% encourage everyone to GO WATCH THESE MOVIES. With a few clicks into Hulu, Amazon, or Netflix - or for a few dollars via Apple or on-demand - you can see so many fantastic films from the last 15 months, safely at home. While I personally can't wait to, eventually, go back to theaters - there's also something to be said for the ease of access we all have right now to so many great current releases.

Now, we all know that the Oscars are not always a perfect representation of the past year's actual best films. The Oscars still tend to overlook a lot of movies that really shoulda' been contenters. And so, as is tradition ... here are my Top 10 OSCAR SNUBS for this year:

1.) Da 5 Bloods and Delroy Lindo

- Da 5 Bloods was my pick for Best Movie of 2020 - and the fact that it got zero major nominations is literally insane. I mean, this is top-tier Spike Lee - arguably one of his best-ever films. And DELROY LINDO. Dude. This was an all-timer acting performance. How was he not nominated?!

2.) The Assistant and Julia Garner

 - This indie film was one of the best of 2020. A stark, haunting portrayal of an assistant working at a movie production company with a Harvey Weinstein-like boss, this one should have been in this year's awards conversations.

 3.) Palm Springs

- Palm Springs was the perfect pandemic movie - and yet, no major Oscar noms? For shame. Yet another example of really good comedies being left out of the awards conversation just because they're funny.

4.) Never Rarely Sometimes Always

- This indie breakout from 2020 was another one that was on my Top 10 of the year but that sadly got no awards love from the Oscars. With so few big blockbusters in 2020, I would have hoped that the Oscars could have shown more love to smaller gems like this.

5.) The White Tiger

- While this one did get a screenplay nom, I can't help but think that it should have more so been in the conversation for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Leading Actor. A stylish crime thriller with a dark sense of humor - I really liked this one.
 
6.) Jodie Foster in The Mauritanean

- While I wouldn't quite put The Mauritanean up there as a Best Picture contender, it's still a very good film and it still features a fantastic performance from Jodie Foster that netted her a Golden Globe. So ... why was this film totally ignored by the Oscars? 

 7.) Let Them All Talk and Candace Bergen 

- Let Them All Talk really should have been in this year's Oscar mix. It was one of the best of 2020, Steven Soderbergh directed the hell out of it, and the entire cast was fantastic. Most notably, Candace Bergen was shockingly incredible in one of her best-ever roles. And yet, no Oscar love? What gives?

8.) Evan Rachel Wood in Kajillionaire

-  Yet another quirky indie that got totally snubbed by the Oscars. If anything, the amazing lead performance from the great Evan Rachel Wood should have been acknowledged. It was a world's away from anything we've seen her do before, but she nailed it. 

9.) One Night In Miami for Best Picture

- One Night In Miami did ultimately get a lot of awards love at the Oscars. But ... where was its Best Picture nom? I mean, this was a top-tier, A-level film - easily as good as or better than most of this year's actual Best Picture nominees. A major misstep, to be sure.

10.) I Care a Lot and Rosamund Pike

-  Another Golden Globe winner who came up empty in terms of Oscar noms, it's a bit mystifying how Pike's tour de force performance in I Care a Lot was snubbed. 

 

Bonus Snub: Spontaneous

 

- I almost didn't mention this one because it was always clear that Spontaneous would not be an Oscar movie. It was too quirky, too young-skewing, too genre-bending, too ... cool? ... for the Oscars to ever fully take it seriously. But why? Why is it such a given that the Oscars overlook cool movies like this? Spontaneous had one of the best scripts of 2020, and was one of the year's most memorable and interesting films, bar-none. 


2021 OSCAR PICKS AND PREDICTIONS:

 

BEST PICTURE:

Should and Will Win: Nomadland

- There are a lot of more-than-worthy movies nominated this year - from Sound of Metal to Minari to The Father to Promising Young Woman - but to me, Nomadland is just that one notch above the pack. It's a truly mind-blowing, chill-inducing film that speaks to the state of this country and the times we live in - and Frances McDormand is mind-blowingly good in it too. Give the win to Chloe Zhao and Nomadland. And while I think Minari has a chance to upset, I still think that at the end of the day, the sheer brilliance of Nomadland will win out with Oscar voters. 

 

BEST ACTOR:

Should Win: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

- Riz Ahmed seemingly came out of nowhere and completely blew me away with his performance in Sound of Metal. The movie left me totally shaken, and a big part of that was due to Ahmed. That said, there are some really great performances in this category, and after seeing The Father, Anthony Hopkins is up there as well. 

Will Win: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

- This is a tough one. Boseman was fantastic in Ma Rainey's, and it makes sense to want to honor his life, career, and tragic passing in 2020. So I think he will end up with a victory here. Boseman's performance was one of the best of last year - but just on an apples to apples basis, I'd probably give the edge to Ahmed or Hopkins.

BEST ACTRESS:

Should and Will Win: Frances McDormand (Nomadland)

- This is a difficult one to predict, as I could see upsets from Carey Mulligan or Viola Davis - or even from the Golden Globe winning Andra Day. But ultimately, I think the sheer force of nature that was McDormand in Nomadland wins out. It's an all-timer performance in an all-timer movie.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Should and Will Win: Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

- I'd love to see Paul Raci win this one. He brought so much heart, soul, authenticity, and lived-in wisdom to Sound of Metal. That said, he is in many ways an underdog to win, given the much higher-profile names he's competing against. Still, I am going to go out on a bit of a limb and predict he pulls off the upset here. I could see the two actors from Judas (Daniel Kaluuya and Lakeith Stanfield) perhaps canceling each other out - opening the door for a Raci surprise. We shall see ...

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Should and Will Win: Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)

- This is another tough category to predict, but I think Yuh-Jung Youn of Minari stands a good chance for gold. She is also my pick for personal fave in this category, as Minari has a great ensemble cast, but she in many ways is the show-stealer. For that reason, I think her status of MVP of one of the year's best films will make her a voter favorite.

 

BEST DIRECTOR:

Should and Will Win: Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)

- I think you can take this one to the bank, and deservedly so. Nomadland is a phenomenally-directed film, and deserves the win - and Zhao has already taken home multiple awards for this one to boot. Personally, I would be happy to see her win. I am such a fan of what she did with Nomadland - just an incredible piece of cinematic art.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Should Win: Sound of Metal

- I like a lot of the scripts in this category, but I keep coming back to Sound of Metal as the film from 2020 that most floored me (along with the sadly not-nominated Da 5 Bloods). 

 

Will Win: Promising Young Woman

 

- I give PYW a lot of credit for just, well, going for broke. It's unique and pulls-no-punches. It's also very much a script-driven movie. So I think it will take this one. If it does, I'm very cool with it. This is one hell of a cool film.

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Should Win: One Night In Miami

- A lot of good scripts in this category, but man, One Night in Miami is just filled with amazing dialogue that absolutely sings. It's theatrical and its dense, but man, is it good. Still, Nomadland is so good overall ... I also can't help but root for that film too. And White Tiger. And The Father ...

Will Win: Nomadland

- I think the safest bet is that Nomadland sweeps the categories in which its nominated, including this one. But ... who knows.

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

Should Win: Onward

- As I've said previously, Onward for me was the best Pixar movie of 2020. I give it the edge over Soul because it worked so well thematically, and delivered a memorable and heartfelt ending. Soul came out of the gate hot, but for me, slightly fizzled by the end.

Will Win: Soul

- With that said, Soul is definitely perceived as the more prestige of the two Pixar movies - so it winning here is probably one of this year's safest bets.

 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM:

Should and Will Win: Another Round

- Given that it's also nominated for Best Director, you have to figure that Another Round is a shoe-in. I recently watched this one, and it is a really interesting film. I still need to watch some of the other nominees, but I give Another Round a hearty endorsement.

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

Should Win: Mulan

- I thought that, visually, Mulan was oftentimes flat-out awesome - with epic battle scenes and a real sense of style and flair and epicness. In a year with few real blockbusters, Mulan was one of the movies that most made me wish I had been able to see it on the big screen.

Will Win: Tenet

- I think Tenet gets the nod here just because of its name-brand recognition and prestige. The truth is that, IMO, this one lacked the same sort of memorably jaw-dropping visuals as past Nolan epics like Inception or Interstellar.


BEST FILM EDITING:

- Should Win: The Father or Sound of Metal

- Will Win: The Father

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

- Should and Will Win: Nomadland

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

- Should and Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

BEST ANIMATED FILM SHORT:

- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: Burrow

BEST DOCUMENTARY:

- Should and Will Win: Crip Camp

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:

- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: A Concerto is a Conversation

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:

- Should Win: ???
- Will Win: Two Distant Strangers

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

- Should Win: Emma

- Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:

- Should Win: Emma 

- Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

BEST SOUND:

- Should and Will Win: Sound of Metal

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

- Should Win: News of the World 

- Will Win: Soul

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

- Should Win: Eurovision

- Will Win: Judas and the Black Messiah

NIGHTCRAWLER Is the Pitch-Black Satire We Need

NIGHTCRAWLER Review:

- The fact that NIGHTCRAWLER was the #1 movie at the American box-office over Halloween weekend is, surely, one of those strange anomalies that will often be mentioned as an exception-to-the-rule - the rule being that smart, weird, adult-oriented, non-franchise films can still do well. Nightcrawler's success may ultimately prove modest in the grand scheme of things, but, this is a film that very much deserves to be seen by a wide audience. It's a film that reminds me of some of the great movies about who-we-are, one part Taxi Driver, one part Network. Jake Gyllenhaal stars - in a soon-to-be-iconic role as weirdo loner Lou Bloom - and he absolutely kills it. He delivers a haunting, strange, funny, and downright disturbing performance as an ambitious outcast whose moral compass is severely off-kilter. This is a film that really shocked me with just how dark and lurid it was willing to go. It pushes its plot to jaw-dropping extremes, and is all the more memorable for it. This is a can't-miss film that, in my mind, ranks right up there among the year's best.

NIGHTCRAWLER introduces us to Lou Boom and instantly makes him into a fascinating, idiosyncratic, and deeply disturbing protagonist. We see him trying to sell pilfered scrap metal, and then desperately, creepily try to convince the scrapyard owner he's selling to to hire him. "If you want to win the lottery, you gotta have the money to buy a ticket." argues Lou. Later, Lou comes across a bloody car wreck, and becomes intrigued by all of the opportunistic video jockeys swarming the crash scene, grabbing video footage in hopes of selling it to local news networks. Lou sees this as a way to make money, as something he'd be good at. So he buys himself a video camera, recruits a down-on-his-luck assistant named Rick, and is off to the races. Lou finds he has an aptitude for monitoring police bands and getting the sort of shock-TV footage that the local news channels crave. He becomes a regular supplier of footage to a local news show run by Nina (Rene Russo). "If it bleeds, it leads" is her mantra.

What's so interesting about NIGHTCRAWLER - and what makes it such a potent satire - is the way in which Nina and her team are repelled and repulsed by Lou, yet also serve as his enablers. As someone who's now lived in Los Angeles for close to ten years, I've seen how uniquely-obsessed LA local news is with sensational stories - the more violent the better. Good luck trying to stay up to date on local politics via LA TV news broadcasts. But if you want to see car chases, car crashes, and gruesome scenes of domestic violence, LA's news teams have got you covered. Of course, local TV news isn't exactly a prime source for news for many people these days, so you might think that NIGHTCRAWLER's premise is potentially outdated. In reality though, NIGHTCRAWLER functions brilliantly as not just a satire of local news' morally-bankrupt bloodlust, but also of any number of institutions that build empires off the blood of others. Lou Bloom represents the nightmare version of The American Dream - an ambitious self-starter who rolls up his sleeves, starts his own business, and ends up becoming a successful entrepreneur. But he does all of this all while his moral compass - shaky to begin with - increasingly shatters. It makes you think: how many businesses, how many institutions, how many empires, were built on blood?

Lou Bloom goes from merely quirky and creepy to downright scary, as he increasingly shows himself willing to do anything and everything to get the footage he wants. As the film progresses, he reveals himself to be a flat-out sociopath. And to its credit, NIGHTCRAWLER doesn't pull punches. This is an extreme film willing to go to very dark, very messed-up places in order to tell its story and make its point. During the film's climactic sequence, in which we see the full extent of Lou's depravity, I've got to say that I was in shock at what I was seeing. The film's intensity will leave you breathless.

Give credit to writer/director Dan Gilroy. The guy's been around for a while as a writer, but this is his first directorial effort. And what an effort it is. Gilroy makes NIGHTCRAWLER a definitive Los Angeles film. He films Gyllenhaal as Lou Bloom all around the greater LA area, and he vividly paints Los Angeles at night as a dark place full of secrets and violence and ominous danger. This is not the glamorous side of LA, but the seedy, shady side of the city that residents see often, but that Hollywood often ignores. This is the sort of LA that gives birth to bottom-feeders like Lou Bloom - parasitic people who dwell in the shadows and roam the streets in search of blood. Gilroy infuses his film with creeping-dread atmosphere and a pitch-black sense of humor. He also crafts some truly riveting action, including an edge-of-your-seat car chase that is among the most nail-biting I've seen in a movie this year. The sense of tension in some of this film's scenes is off-the-chain.

So much of what makes NIGHTCRAWLER as memorable as it is can be attributed to Jake Gyllenhaal's performance as Lou Bloom. Gyllenhaal's breakout role came from Donnie Darko, in which he showed that he could ably play the oddball outsider. The actor has since dabbled with playing more traditional leading-man characters, but he's always excelled at playing eccentrics. And here is his most eccentric character yet - one which Gyllenhaal makes into a funny-scary mash-up that is utterly distinct and totally mesmerizing. Bloom speaks in a measured, hyper-literal manner that might seem completely comical in other hands, but Gyllenhaal tempers the character's quirkiness with a real darkness and edge. He goes all-in, and so you buy this character despite his over-the-topness. This is Oscar-worthy stuff from Gyllenhaal.

Rene Russo is also absolutely great as TV news producer Nina Romina. Russo makes Nina nearly as compelling of a character as Lou - she's a veteran producer who knows what she wants and tends to get it. But she and Lou are two sides of a coin: Lou's weirdness and depravity is sort of out there in the open - he tries to mask it, but it's there. Nina's depravity is of the slicker, more corporate, more institutionalized variety. It's the kind that's a seemingly acceptable part of corporate America. And yet a key part of her job is making deals with devils like Lou Bloom. As their relationship becomes stranger and more personal, we see the intertwining of the two roles. Is Nina really all that different from Lou? Is she not just Lou with a better job title, more money, and more professional tact? In any case, Russo does a bang-up job of making Nina a fascinating foil and accomplice to Lou. There are a couple of other notable turns in the film. Riz Ahmed is fantastic as Rick - a street kid who gets hired by Lou to be his wingman during his nighttime escapades. Ahmed perfectly portrays Rick as just the sort of desperate-for-cash guy who might be willing to hook up with Lou - but who eventually can't help but question his employer's sanity, as the full scope of his pathology becomes evident. Rick is a character both funny and heartbreaking, and I think Ahmed deserves major attention for his breakout role here. Bill Paxton is also excellent as a rival nightcrawler (the name for the guys like Lou who crawl the city in search of lucrative accident footage for TV news).

NIGHTCRAWLER is one of those films that burrows deep into your psyche and won't get out. Rich in atmosphere and completely uncompromising, it holds a mirror up to the media - and to America - and shows its darkest side in lurid detail. This is who we are, it says, and the truth, well ... it's ugly. Lou Bloom's midnight rides through Los Angeles may just become the stuff of cinematic legend: this is must-see satire of American Dream as American Nightmare.

My Grade: A